Vikings-Seahawks preview, predictions: Can Minnesota stay on pace for No. 1 seed?

Sunday will be the first time Justin Jefferson plays in Seattle. Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell has not matched up against the Seahawks since he was the Los Angeles Rams’ offensive coordinator in 2021. All of this comes at a critical time as the Vikings are vying for the division title and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

The Athletic’s model gives the Vikings just a 9.8 percent chance of securing a first-round playoff bye. But there can be no slipups if that’s going to happen.

This matchup will certainly test the Vikings ahead of their final two games against division rivals. As always, Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview.

What I’m watching

Lewis: The Seahawks’ plan for Jefferson. First-year Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald is a sharp defensive mind, especially from a coverage perspective. The Seahawks also have a solid group of defensive backs with Tariq Woolen, Devon Witherspoon and Julian Love. How Macdonald uses those three to try to mitigate Jefferson’s impact will be interesting. One of the ways opposing defenses have had success against Jefferson and the Vikings of late is to play with two deep safeties. This eliminates some of Minnesota’s verticality, but it opens up areas underneath and over the middle of the field. Whatever strategy Macdonald deploys, it’ll likely force quick adaptations from O’Connell and company, so don’t be shocked if the early portion of the game is a little choppy.

Krawczynski: Brian O’Neill. How is he moving? The star right tackle had to leave the game against Chicago a couple of times due to a knee injury, a frightening sight given the Vikings are already missing starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah was nimble in addressing Darrisaw’s injury, trading for Cam Robinson to fill that hole. But if O’Neill had to miss any time, there is no quick fix. O’Neill has practiced this week and O’Connell has indicated he will be ready to go Sunday. Any further injury to that knee would be a tough blow given the strength of the schedule down the stretch as they try to chase down that No. 1 seed.

Biggest concerns

Lewis: The Vikings run defense. No team has a worse success rate against the run over the last three weeks than Minnesota. Is this because the Vikings haven’t had Ivan Pace Jr.? That’s certainly a factor. Are some of the issues tied to interior defensive linemen Harrison Phillips and Jonathan Bullard playing loads of snaps? Maybe. Regardless, for this defense to be as efficient as coordinator Brian Flores expects, it must stop the run on early downs. That means longer distances on third downs and more time for the quarterback to hold the ball, which means a better chance for the pass rush to get home. It’s all tied together, and it all starts with the run defense.

Krawczynski: Leonard Williams. I often look to the interior of an opponent’s defensive line first when keeping my eyes out for landmines, and Williams is a big one. He has seven sacks this season and 37 pressures. The Seahawks have a whole bunch of dudes who can find themselves around the quarterback, but Williams is the guy that everyone seems to feed off. If he collapses the interior of the Vikings line, that could unlock Boye Mafe, Derick Hall and the rest of the Seahawks pass rushers to get after quarterback Sam Darnold as well.

Most interesting matchup

Lewis: Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed and Byron Murphy II versus Blake Brandel, Dalton Risner and Garrett Bradbury. Before Monday’s game, Next Gen Stats said the Vikings interior offensive linemen had combined to allow 140 pressures on 1359 pass-blocking snaps between them, resulting in a league-high pressure rate of 10.3 percent. Williams, Reed and Murphy had 96 pressures among them. If the Vikings are going to make a deep run into the playoffs, this unit is going to have to give Darnold enough time to throw the ball vertically. This test is tougher than the past three weeks, and it’s going to serve as a litmus test for the final two games and beyond.

Krawczynski: Jonathan Greenard versus Geno Smith. Yes, I know Greenard will first have to get by the Seattle offensive line to get to Smith, but with the way he has played in his first season in Minnesota, that is of minimal concern. Greenard seems to be getting stronger as the season progresses, coming up with splash plays every week for a turnover-hunting Vikings defense. He has 11 sacks on the season and four forced fumbles, including one in three of the last four games. Smith is practicing this week after not being able to finish last week’s game because of a knee injury. If he is hampered in any way, getting away from Greenard will be even more difficult.

Most interesting storyline

Lewis: How will Darnold finish? His performance against the Bears was not his best, but the statistics would have probably looked a lot different had Jefferson not dropped a sure touchdown in the first half. Darnold still has thrown 12 touchdowns and one interception in the last five games. He has produced with a lead and when trailing. Plenty of teams will be looking for quarterbacks this offseason, and considering the questions regarding draft picks and the other free-agent possibilities, Darnold may be the most sought-after option. His consistency (or lack thereof) in meaningful games these last few weeks will go a long way toward cementing how aggressive other teams get financially. This matchup on the road will be a pivotal data point.

Krawczynski: The Vikings’ chase of the No. 1 seed in the NFC is a gauntlet. December’s schedule is a crazy one for the purple, but if they sweep the final three games of the regular season, they will have a great chance for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. A 12-2 team that has won seven straight should have no problem going 3-0, right? Well, uh, about that. A road game at Seattle, historically one of the toughest places to play in the league, followed by a home game against the red-hot Packers and a road game against 12-2 Detroit is about as difficult as you can get. If they can emerge as the top dog going into the playoffs, it will be earned, not given.

How these teams match up from a data standpoint

Here is where each team ranks in the following categories, using explosive play rate for explosiveness and success rate for efficiency:

Predictions

Lewis: Vikings 23, Seahawks 20. I don’t expect this one to be easy at all. The Seahawks front gives me pause, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba feasts against zone coverage. Pressure on Geno Smith will be paramount. In the end, I’m leaning on the Vikings staff’s ability to adjust, but I don’t feel comfortable with the pick.

Krawczynski: Vikings 23, Seahawks 17. Prior to last week’s 30-13 humbling at the hands of the Packers, the Seahawks had won four straight games and had not given up more than 21 points in any of them. Smith’s injury looms large this week, and I still have a hard time seeing how they are going to score more than 21 against this Vikings defense.

(Photo of Justin Jefferson: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)