Last weekend, U.S. Bank Stadium felt like it had been injected with adrenaline.
This is what happens when you enter a season with minimal expectations and the team overperforms through two games.
Can the Minnesota Vikings keep this up against one of the NFL’s ascending teams in the Houston Texans? It won’t be easy, and it will require another impressive showing on both sides of the ball. The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview.
What I’m watching
Lewis: C.J. Stroud. There is not a more impressive young quarterback in the NFL. You know that if you’ve watched him. You know that if you’ve checked any of the advanced metrics. And you know that if you listened to head coach Kevin O’Connell earlier this week. “I can’t say enough about what shows up on tape,” O’Connell said. Stroud has arm strength and accuracy. He makes plays on the run. And he is poised. But he has not faced much of what he’ll face this weekend. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores has not been kind to young quarterbacks. There is no telling what Minnesota will unfurl for Stroud. Max pressure? Max coverage? A four-man pass rush? It’s all on the table, and it’ll be fascinating to see how Stroud sorts through it in a raucous environment.
Krawczynski: Stefon Diggs. He’s making his return to U.S. Bank Stadium, and certainly there will be some boos thrown his way. I won’t be fixating on how Diggs left but on what he gave. He built himself into a game-breaking receiver after being a fifth-round draft pick, delivered one of the most memorable plays in Vikings history and, when it was clear both sides needed to part ways, brought a draft pick in return that turned into Justin Jefferson. He is always animated on the sideline, and I’m sure that will be the case Sunday. As usual, I will be keeping my eye on him.
Biggest concerns
Lewis: The Texans’ trio of receivers. Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Diggs are as dynamic a skill group as you’re going to find. They stretch the defense, they separate and they run well after catches. The Vikings still aren’t playing a lot of man coverage. Though they had talked about upping their usage this offseason, they rank 31st in the league in usage of man coverage, according to TruMedia, ahead of only the Indianapolis Colts. In other words, Collins, Dell and Diggs won’t often be left in one-on-one coverage. Still, these three are aware enough to identify pockets in zones and torch defenses. San Francisco’s pass catchers tested Stephon Gilmore, Byron Murphy Jr. and Shaq Griffin last week, but this matchup might be even more difficult for the home side.
Krawczynski: Justin Jefferson’s stride. He said he’ll play Sunday, and Friday’s injury report confirmed it, but thigh contusions are no joke. They can linger for a while. He will be going up against fellow LSU alum Derek Stingley Jr. and will need every bit of the speed we saw on that 97-yard touchdown against the 49ers. Jefferson is the field tilter, especially with Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson still out with injuries. As resourceful and impressive as Sam Darnold was in the fourth quarter last week when Jefferson was out, it feels like the Vikings will need Jefferson’s burst and gravity this week.
Most interesting matchup
Lewis: Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill versus Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson. The Hunter angle is obvious. The former Viking is one of the game’s best pass rushers going against tackles who have spoken about how much their practice reps against him helped their development. Anderson, meanwhile, is a budding star. The Texans rank third in the NFL in sacks through two weeks and are 10th in pressure rate. Hunter and Anderson are the engine that makes this defense go. They’ve also been key cogs in stopping opposing rushing attacks, which will be key in placing Darnold in difficult circumstances.
Krawczynski: Brian Flores versus C.J. Stroud. When was the last time you saw a quarterback go up to an opposing defensive coordinator after a game and tell him his scheme was crazy? That’s exactly what Brock Purdy did to Flores last week, and it’s one of the biggest reasons the Vikings are off to a 2-0 start. Flores has these guys disguising coverages, playing mind games with quarterbacks (and offensive coordinators) and coming at the offense in waves. Stroud is a brilliant young quarterback, but he is young. Seeing how he matches wits with Flores will be fascinating.
Most interesting storyline
Lewis: It has to be Darnold. He ranks fifth among 32 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating, according to TruMedia, and is completing 72 percent of his passes. The No. 3 pick in 2018 who was not surrounded by high-end talent or coaching until his final seven games in Carolina and who spent last season sitting behind Purdy in San Francisco has run O’Connell’s offense extraordinarily well. Darnold has thrown two interceptions, one of which was the result of a tipped pass, but he has mostly held onto the ball. If he looks good Sunday and the Vikings move to 3-0, his play will be the talk of the NFL.
Krawczynski: The momentum that is there to be had. The Vikings have looked really strong out of the gate. Last week’s win over San Francisco was particularly impressive and opened my eyes to outcomes I did not think were attainable coming into the season. That said, it has still been just two games. A win over the Texans, a talented team that some believe could represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, would be another huge step. Every season, a couple of non-playoff teams from the year before end up surprising people. The Vikings have the look of one of those teams right now, and a win against Houston would certainly bolster that outlook.
How these teams match up from data standpoint
We’re trying a new approach this week. Here is where each team ranks in the following categories, using explosive play rate for explosiveness and success rate for efficiency.
|
Vikings
▲
|
Texans
|
|
|---|---|---|
|
Offensive explosiveness
|
2nd
|
5th
|
|
Defensive efficiency
|
9th
|
8th
|
|
Defensive explosiveness
|
11th
|
10th
|
|
Offensive efficiency
|
14th
|
21st
|
|
Turnover margin
|
15th
|
5th
|
Predictions
Lewis: Vikings 21, Texans 17. Maybe I’m crazy to think Houston won’t have a huge dropoff between Joe Mixon and Cam Akers, but I don’t. I’m a little concerned about stunts affecting the Vikings’ interior offensive line, too. I just wonder if Flores’ system will be too much for Stroud and Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and that, to me, is enough.
Krawczynski: Vikings 23, Texans 20. Houston is pretty banged up with Collins and Mixon among the key players who are hurting. The Vikings aren’t exactly full strength, either, but it’s hard not to pick them at home after the way they’ve started the season. They have been one of the best-coached teams in the league so far. That bodes well for Sunday.
| Game | Week 3 vs. HOU | Record |
|---|---|---|
|
Lewis
|
 Vikings |
1-1
|
|
Krawczynski
|
Vikings |
1-1
|
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(Photo of Camryn Bynum: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)
