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Pete Alonso has hit 227 home runs (counting the postseason) in his career. Last night might have been the biggest of them all. Plus: Terry Francona is taking over in Cincinnati, Ken tells us about massive turnover in Miami and we preview the four Division Series matchups. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal. Welcome to The Windup!
Mets Advance to NLDS: Peter Morgan Alonso.
Given Pete Alonso’s sprint speed (19th percentile) and Devin Williams’ penchant for ground balls (43.2 percent of batted balls), it’s not outlandish to say that the Milwaukee Brewers were one pitch — one little double play — away from advancing to the NLDS against the Phillies.
Instead, with the score 2-0 Milwaukee, Alonso extended New York’s season (and perhaps his time in a Mets uniform) by blasting an opposite-field three-run home run, completely flipping the script. Here, see if you can spot it in the win probability chart:
That’s an absurd 66.1 percent shift with one swing of the bat.
Remember: Alonso will hit free agency after this season. It has been, by a few measures, his least productive season since debuting in 2019. Williams, meanwhile, returned from injury this year and immediately resumed his dominance, posting a 1.25 ERA and holding opposing hitters to a .133 batting average and just one home run in 21 2/3 innings.
And yet … The Mets!
It did end on a double play, after all that. It just came in the bottom of the ninth, with the Mets winning 4-2. Alonso’s heroic moment sent baseball’s most persistent harbingers of chaos to the NLDS, where they’ll take on division rival Philadelphia. Between that and Padres/Dodgers, the NLDS round should be a lot of fun (more on that later).
The Brewers were one of the sport’s most persistently fun and surprising stories of the summer. Alas, it’s fall now, and last night brought another postseason disappointment to a team that’s had a few in recent years.
Ken’s Notebook: Marlins keep purging staff
From my latest column:
The Miami Marlins continued the gutting of their organization this week, bringing the total of staffers let go to more than 70, according to lists obtained by The Athletic.
More departures are possible after contracts expire Oct. 31. The Marlins told a number of employees, including major-league coaches Luis Urueta and Jon Jay, that the team is interested in them returning, sources said. But decisions on the futures of those staffers will be left to new hires, including the next manager. Skip Schumaker, the 2023 National League Manager of the Year, left the organization after reaching an agreement with the club last offseason to void the 2025 option on his contract.
Major-league teams typically experience turnover toward the end of each season, and that turnover generally accelerates when a new head of baseball operations takes control. While change was expected after the Marlins hired Peter Bendix as president of baseball operations last November, few teams institute overhauls that are this sweeping.
Bendix declined comment, but a club official said the team will fill all the vacant positions and create new roles as well, saying the moves were done to reset and restructure baseball operations, not cut costs.
The Marlins’ purge began in mid-August, when they parted with two assistant general managers, four field coordinators, their international scouting director and more than 10 scouts, as first reported by ESPN. Another 31 employees, many in player development, lost their jobs in September. The major-league coaches were among the 23 who received notice this week that they would not return next season. The cuts also included the team’s dietitian, home clubhouse manager and traveling secretary, and others.
More turnover: The Diamondbacks have parted ways with, among others, pitching coach Brent Strom.
He’s Baaack: Terry Francona’s return
Not long after Alonso’s home run, news began to break: Terry Francona, who retired from managing the Guardians after the 2023 season, is planning to return to the same role in the same state — just with a different team. He’ll be the new Reds manager, replacing David Bell, who was fired on Sept. 22.
It’s a surprising move. Francona dealt with a plethora of health issues in his last four years with the Guardians, including long absences in 2020 and 2021. As Zack Meisel notes in this story, Francona’s message at the end of 2023 was that he didn’t “foresee managing” again. So at very least, it was an unforeseen bit of news last night. In Francona, the Reds are certainly getting some experience. In his 23 years managing the Phillies, Red Sox and Guardians, he has racked up a 1950-1672 record, good for the 13th-most wins all time.
Again, here’s a deeper look at how the surprising news came about.
Division Series Previews: What to know for the next round
Eight teams, four matchups and it all starts tomorrow. Here’s a quick Division Series preview:
AMERICAN LEAGUE — Will the underdogs keep rolling? (Staff picks)
Tigers vs. Guardians: It’s almost useless to look at season-long numbers for these two teams, because — perhaps you’ve heard — the Tigers’ odds of making the playoffs were down to 0.2 percent on Aug. 11. Here’s a handy before and after comparison:
So if there’s going to be one upset this round … 👀
We also have stories on both managers today: Cody Stavenhagen on A.J. Hinch knocking out his old club months after an August team meeting, and Zack Meisel on the trash-talking history between Stephen Vogt and Guardians bench coach Craig Albernaz. (1:08 p.m. ET, TBS)
Royals vs. Yankees: The easy storyline is the matchup between the likely top two finishers in the AL MVP race — Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. But we’re also seeing two lineups that are pretty top-heavy. The Yankees have the edge, with Juan Soto, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Giancarlo Stanton providing more length than Salvador Pérez and Vinnie Pasquantino.
The pitching is remarkably close. Sure, the Royals might have Judge’s “kryptonite” starting in Game 1, but both teams finished the season with identical 3.76 ERAs. The Royals have their work cut out for them. (6:38 p.m. ET, TBS)
NATIONAL LEAGUE — Bitter rivals meet again
Mets vs. Phillies: The Mets have played the Phillies 1,082 times in the regular season. That’s way more than any other team (the Braves are second on the list, at 861 games). Tyler Kepner has an outstanding list of the 10 most memorable moments of the rivalry. But they’ve never faced each other in the postseason before this year.
The Phillies aren’t a perfect team, but they were the second-best team in the NL this year. One possible boost for New York: Kodai Senga could be back (albeit with limited availability). (4:08 p.m. ET, Fox)
Padres vs. Dodgers: It will be the third NLDS meeting in the last five years between these NL West rivals; each team has bounced the other once.
Led by 50/50 hero Shohei Ohtani, no team in baseball can match the Dodgers’ star power, period. But the Padres’ lineup boasts more than a few stars of its own, and has an appetite for the big moment. Advantage Dodgers, but not overwhelmingly so. If San Diego has one advantage, it’s the pitching. Not only is their bullpen stacked, they have more healthy starters than the Dodgers right now. (8:38 p.m. ET, FS1)
Fabian Ardaya fills us in on the Dodgers’ pitching plans (and Freddie Freeman’s ankle).
Stream the MLB playoffs on Fubo.
Handshakes and High Fives
So what did we learn from the first round? Aces matter. (So does winning the first game.)
Orioles GM Mike Elias acknowledged that changes are needed in Baltimore. The question is: how much change?
Bidding on Shohei Ohtani’s 50th home run has now surpassed the price of Aaron Judge’s 62nd from 2022.
Most-clicked in yesterday’s newsletter: Like a Jeopardy! champion with a streak on the line, Jim Bowden’s list of “11 impending free agents with the most on the line this postseason” is back for a second day.
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(Top photo: Benny Sieu / Imagn Images)
