With two weeks remaining in the regular season, the schedule is brimming with conference championship and College Football Playoff implications, including undefeated underdogs, a crowded SEC race, potential chaos in the Big 12 and a top-five Big Ten clash between Indiana and Ohio State.
Let’s rank the top 10 games of Week 12, starting with honorable mentions and counting down.
Honorable Mention: No. 24 UNLV at San Jose State (Fri.), No. 25 Illinois at Rutgers, Sam Houston at Jacksonville State, Western Kentucky at Liberty, Kentucky at No. 3 Texas, Wisconsin at Nebraska, Washington State at Oregon State, No. 22 Iowa State at Utah.
(All point spreads come from BetMGM; click here for live odds. All kickoff times are Eastern and on Saturday unless otherwise noted.)
10. Colorado State (7-3) at Fresno State (5-5), 10:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network
This is a sneaky significant game in the CFP race. UNLV is 24th in the CFP rankings, but Colorado State is above the Rebels in the Mountain West standings at 5-0 and in second place behind No. 12 Boise State. The Broncos, who are currently projected into a top-four seed and first-round bye in the Playoff bracket, could benefit from another win against a ranked UNLV in the Mountain West championship, but CSU controls UNLV’s odds to get there. Margins are thin: Boise State facing the unranked Rams instead of the ranked Rebels could be the difference between a first-round road trip and first-round bye, depending on how things play out in the ACC and Big 12. Before we can get to any of that, Colorado State is a road underdog at Fresno.
Line: Fresno State -3.5
9. No. 13 SMU (9-1) at Virginia (5-5), Noon, ESPN2
The Mustangs can lock up a spot in the ACC championship game with one win over the next two weeks. Miami, which hosts Wake Forest, needs to win out, with Clemson lurking and hoping for a stumble or two. Odds are that SMU will win its way into the conference championship, but the CFP jockeying is a factor as well. The Mustangs are currently just outside the 12-team field, and will need to win out the regular season in convincing fashion — and maybe see a couple of two-loss SEC teams slip up? — if they want to maintain any chance at an at-large spot.
Line: SMU -9.5
8. No. 4 Penn State (9-1) at Minnesota (6-4), 3:30 p.m., CBS
Penn State has lost its last two trips to Minnesota, including in 2019 when the Nittany Lions were also fourth in the CFP rankings. While still mathematically alive in the Big Ten race, it’s doubtful Penn State will sneak into the conference championship. It also has a rather pedestrian resume despite its top-four ranking — hooray helmet bias! — and may not be able to hang in the Playoff picture with a second loss. The mercurial Gophers, who had won four in a row before a recent loss to Rutgers, will try to test that theorem in a semi-rivalry matchup with a forgotten trophy.
Line: Penn State -11.5
7. No. 9 Ole Miss (8-2) at Florida (5-5), Noon, ABC
The Rebels’ chances of reaching the SEC championship are minuscule, but Ole Miss is sitting pretty in the CFP standings and is in line for an at-large bid if it can avoid a third loss over the next two weeks. Quarterback Jaxson Dart is 373 yards shy of eclipsing Eli Manning as Ole Miss’s career passing leader and could set the record with a big day against the Gators.
But Florida is fresh off a nice upset of LSU despite being out-possessed by the Tigers 41:43 to 18:17. After suffering weeks of Billy Napier hot-seat drama, the Gators are one win away from reaching bowl eligibility and can shake up the Playoff race with another upset on Saturday.
Line: Ole Miss -10
6. No. 7 Alabama (8-2) at Oklahoma (5-5), 7:30 p.m., ABC
It’s been quite the ride for Alabama, between the wild win over Georgia, losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee, and then resounding wins over Missouri and LSU. After all that, the Tide are well-positioned to reach the SEC championship in Kalen DeBoer’s first season at the helm, with the Sooners on the road and the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa left on the schedule.
Entering the weekend, winning out doesn’t guarantee Bama a spot in the title game, but that’s the most likely destination. The Sooners have a top-20 defense at 4.8 yards per play allowed, so we’ll see if an Oklahoma team that’s lost four straight to FBS opponents can slow down Alabama and quarterback Jalen Milroe, who has 32 total touchdowns for the season.
Line: Alabama -13.5
5. No. 15 Texas A&M (8-2) at Auburn (4-6), 7:30 p.m., ESPN
The Aggies, who haven’t even appeared in a conference championship since winning the Big 12 back in 1998, fully control their own destiny in the SEC with two games remaining. Next week at home against Texas is the big one, but A&M can’t get caught looking past a disappointing Auburn team that is less than a field-goal underdog on its own field. Texas A&M appears to be sticking with redshirt freshman Marcel Reed at quarterback, who has struggled at times as a passer but is a dangerous runner.
Line: Texas A&M -2.5
4. No. 16 Colorado (8-2) at Kansas (4-6), 3:30 p.m., Fox
All that attention on Colorado and head coach Deion Sanders last year and to start this season, and yet it now feels as if this team is underappreciated. The Buffs have won four in a row and seven of their last eight, making them another team that controls its own fate in the conference standings. If Colorado wins out, it’s going to the Big 12 championship, where a victory would send the program to the CFP. That’s a long way from 4-8 and dead last in the Pac-12 a season ago.
First up is a trip to Arrowhead Stadium against a Kansas squad that fought back from a dreadful start to play Big 12 spoiler, toppling Iowa State and then-undefeated BYU in its last two games. The Jayhawks are eliminated from the Big 12 race but can still reach bowl eligibility and spark some additional turmoil in the process.
Line: Colorado -3
3. No. 19 Army (9-0) vs No. 6 Notre Dame (9-1), 7 p.m., NBC
Army is one of three remaining undefeated teams in FBS, and a potential Playoff disruptor out of the AAC if it can remain unbeaten, including a nonconference upset of Notre Dame. That will be a tough task against the sixth-ranked Irish, who knocked off service academy Navy a few weeks ago in a 51-14 blowout.
The Army-Notre Dame rivalry, which dates to 1913, “returns” to Yankee Stadium for the first time since 2010 — where it was played in Old Yankee Stadium for many years. The most recent meeting was at the Alamodome in San Antonio in 2016, a 44–6 victory for Notre Dame and part of a 15-game win streak over Army that stretches to 1965. The Irish can’t afford another loss if they want to stay in Playoff contention, and will need their top-five defense to shut down Army’s triple option, which accounts for the nation’s top rushing offense (334.9 yards per game).
Line: Notre Dame -14.5
2. No. 14 BYU (9-1) at No. 21 Arizona State (8-2), 3:30 p.m., ESPN
The Big 12’s chaos narrative has become cliche at this point, yet nobody had this one circled as the league’s game of the year entering the season. A BYU program that won five games in 2023 and was picked near the bottom of the league, against an Arizona State team that was picked dead-last out of 16 schools, facing off in late November with a spot in the Big 12 championship essentially up for grabs. The league’s title race and Playoff scenarios are a little murky after BYU dropped from No. 6 to No. 14 in the rankings following last week’s loss, but the Cougars have a physical defense and do-or-die offense. It should make for a fun battle against the assertive (and favored) Sun Devils led by human wrecking ball Cam Skattebo at running back.
Line: Arizona State -3
1. No. 5 Indiana (10-0) at No. 2 Ohio State (9-1), Noon, Fox
College football is ruthless. For whatever reason, the conversation on Indiana shifted from feel-good story of the season to possible Playoff fraud in a matter of days. It’s gone from “Can anyone beat Indiana?” to “Who has Indiana beaten?” Whether you’re a Hoosier hater or believer, we’re about to get an answer. Undefeated IU travels to Ohio State for yet another top-five showdown, with the winner well on its way to facing Oregon in the Big Ten championship and a lock for the CFP.
The Hoosiers have ripped off a dominant 10-game run, but much of it came against the bottom of the Big Ten standings. Now they’re heavy underdogs against the second-ranked Buckeyes, and Indiana’s resume is arguably weak enough to knock the Hoosiers out of the 12-team Playoff picture with a loss. Or Indiana could prove the doubters wrong and put Ohio State — and its depleted offensive line — on the bubble.
Either way, it’s a matchup between two of the top teams in the sport that will have massive postseason ramifications. That’s a conversation worth having.
Line: Ohio State -12.5
(Photo: Justin Casterline / Getty Images)
