Week 14 fantasy football rankings: Sleepers, projections, starts, sits | Caleb Williams, Jordan Addison and more

We’re one week from the fantasy football playoffs, so let’s make sure you make it. With six teams on a bye, the Week 14 rankings are thinner, but that just means the info is more important, and it’s time to shoot for those ceilings.

Reminder! I always have some fun ranks! This can be anything from cartoons to players from the 80s to things not to do when you’re over 30 — feel free to suggest yours. And, I try to answer as many comments as humanly possible… however… if it’s a simple WDIS within a position or “Who should I trade for?” type question, those are 99% covered with the ranks and link to the trade charts. Let’s duckin’ go!

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Week 14 Waiver Wire
Week 14 SOS Ranks
Fantasy 101 (weather, start/sit, trading, more)
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WEEK 14 FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEWS

BYES: BAL, DEN, HOU, IND, NE, WSH

Packers at Lions, Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET

If Romeo Doubs plays, the Packers’ pecking order is back to Jayden Reed and Doubs at the top with Christian Watson as a boom/bust WR4. If Doubs is out, Watson is pushing WR2 upside.
The Lions run the most man coverage in the league (41.4%), and Reed sees a significant downtick versus man in YPRR (Yards Per Route Run), going from 2.97 against zone to 1.23 against man. Conversely, Watson is good against both but with a small uptick from 2.13 against zone to 2.49 against man.

Jaguars at Titans, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

As if you needed more reasons to avoid the Jaguars backfield, the Titans have the fourth-highest Stuff% (percentage of runs for 0 or negative yards) at 25.3%.
If you listened to my pod, I joked that Calvin Ridley left 90 yards on the field (well, more so due to Will Levis), but it turns out, it was 93. Hey, how about that? Well, this is more about a rebound opportunity. The Jaguars run the third-most man coverage (35.8%), and Ridley sees a massive boost against man, going from 1.30 YPRR against zone to 2.77 against man.

Jets at Dolphins, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Breece Hall leads all RBs (min 100 touches) with a 2.9% fumble rate, leading to the concern of more shared work with Braelon Allen.
Raheem Mostert’s Week 13 RBTouch% (29.2) was his highest since Week 9. Nevertheless, he’s still not usable, but this ruins any desperation value for Jaylen Wright, who might have lost the backup gig due to a Week 12 fumble… or Mostert being healthy… or, just don’t risk the Dolphins backups.
The difference between Garrett Wilson’s first three games and his last three with Davante Adams on the team? AirYD/TGT. Wilson had 12.04 AirYD/TGT, 13.9 YD/REC and 2.59 YPRR in those first three compared to marks of 8.88, 7.1 and 0.90, respectively. Those last three teams included two heavy zone teams, and Wilson has been better against man. Unfortunately, only the Jaguars (next week) are inside the top half of the league (third) in using man coverage.

Falcons at Vikings, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Kirk Cousins has been quite terrible of late, and he doesn’t look likely to improve this week. The Vikings run zone the second most (78.7%), and Cousins has -0.02 EPA against zone (26th), but 0.29 against man (fourth highest).
The same goes for Sam Darnold with this split: -0.03 against zone (28th), 0.21 against man (11th). The Falcons run zone fourth most (77.8%).
Back to Cousins, he’s also 46th of 48 qualified QBs in TD+1D/ATT (touchdown plus first downs per attempt) when blitzed (8.5%), and the Vikings blitz a league-high 26.9%.

Saints at Giants, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Not a huge sample, but when Chris Olave and Taysom Hill have been off the field, Marquez Valdes-Scantling leads the team with a 14.3 TmTGT%, which includes games he wasn’t active for the Saints. If you need a tight end flier, Juwan Johnson is second at 12.7%.
If Tommy DeVito starts… ahh, who are we kidding? It doesn’t matter! (in full Rock voice). Malik Nabers is a gamble but mostly a must-start, and Tyrone Tracy Jr. is hard to bench in a six-team bye week, but the timeshare has sapped his guaranteed RB2 value.

Panthers at Eagles, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

In addition to making sure Dallas Goedert plays, he’s in a smash spot if he goes. The Panthers run the second-most Cover-3 (47.2%), and Goedert goes from 1.76 YPRR against all other coverage to 2.71 against Cover-3.
Wide receivers with at least 8.6 points against the Eagles since their bye (Week 5): Ja’Marr Chase, 15.9; Puka Nacua, 16.2; Cooper Kupp, 16.0. End of list. Adam Thielen is a start, but it’s a risky floor.

Browns at Steelers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

If Cedric Tillman returns, it dings Elijah Moore, but I’d still rank him ahead of Tillman with Jameis Winston at QB (who is ranked on his upside, but if you can’t stand the risk of a 5, it’s understandable). If Tillman is out, Moore is a rock-solid WR3, even in this matchup.
You’re not benching Jerry Jeudy, but you might want to temper the WR1 hope. The Steelers use the fifth-most Cover-3 (43.8%), and Jeudy has just 1.50 YPRR against it compared to 2.32 against anything else (for comparison, the Broncos are 19th).
More zone versus man fun: The Browns run the fourth-most man coverage (35.0% — one of only four teams over 33%), and George Pickens is great against zone (2.13 YPRR), but he’s amazing against man (3.38).

Raiders at Buccaneers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

I want no part of the Raiders backfield with or without Alexander Mattison, but if Mattison is out, Sincere McCormick would be the desperation start over Ameer Abdullah.
Bucky Irving is banged up, so if he’s out for Week 14, Rachaad White would enter the RB1 conversation and Sean Tucker would be a solid RB3 with a Top 15 ceiling.
The Raiders faced Travis Kelce twice, Mike Gesicki (without Tee Higgins) and Jonnu Smith in four of their past five games, which skews their TE FPPG allowed numbers, but they’re still vulnerable. As mentioned in waivers worries, I’m giving Cade Otton one more go inside the Top 10.

Seahawks at Cardinals, Sunday, 4 p.m. ET

This matchup was a disappointing slog two weeks ago, but both defenses have been good in the second half of the season.
While the defenses have been good, the Seahawks are still vulnerable to the pass, particularly wide receivers, and Trey McBride saw his second-highest Slot% work of the season — expect similar.

Bills at Rams, Sunday, 4 p.m. ET

The Rams are the fifth-heaviest zone defense, and Khalil Shakir sees a nice YPRR bump from man (1.93) to zone (2.66).
The Rams also have the third-lowest Stuff% (16.7), putting Ray Davis in the desperation/Flex conversation.
All of Kyren Williams’ metrics are nearly identical from Weeks 1-7 compared to Weeks 8-13 (with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua together and healthy)… except one: RushTD/ATT%. In Weeks 1-7, Williams averaged 6.9 RushTD/ATT, despite 3.8 YPC, compared to 1.9% with 4.6 YPC (and higher YPR, for what it’s worth). Why is that? Well, Williams went from 2.0 G2G attempts per game to 1.1, as the Rams went from 50.0 Pass% on G2G to 66.7 Pass% in Weeks 8-13.

Bears at 49ers, Sunday, 4 p.m. ET

Since Shane Waldron’s firing, Caleb Williams has gone from 10.7 Sack% to 7.9, 60.5 Comp% to 64.1, 10.0 YD/Comp to 11.0, dropped nearly a half-second on his time to throw and is targeting his wide receivers 73.5% of the time compared to 60.9% prior.
Concerning for Jauan Jennings — and not just the offense these days — the Bears use Cover-3 fourth-most (45.5%), and Jennings drops from 2.97 YPRR against other coverage to 1.38 against Cover-3.
As I mentioned in my offseason NFL Draft coverage, I love Isaac Guerendo’s stylistic fit for a Kyle Shanahan offense. The Bears are middle of the pack in APA for RBs, so no real fear here in firing up Guerendo.

Chargers at Chiefs, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

If Ladd McConkey sits, Joshua Palmer would rank ahead of Quentin Johnston as a WR3. He’s a great backup plan as a grab-and-hold while waiting on McConkey news.
Hassan Haskins’ use in pass blocking muddies this backfield, but this matchup points to more Kimani Vidal use. If you need a ceiling play, Vidal is a solid option, but if the Chargers can handle the Chiefs, Gus Edwards would eat more, giving Vidal a very low floor.
DeAndre Hopkins Route% jumped back up to his second-highest mark with the Chiefs, but it was still 66.7%. Like last week, he’s the only one I’d risk, and even then, I have zero trust in the Chiefs wideouts.

Bengals at Cowboys, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Since Week 5, Tee Higgins is No. 2 in FPPG (18.6 in five games — also No. 3 on the season with 15.3). Ja’Marr Chase is No. 1, both in that range and for the season (19.4).
Joe Burrow is No. 2 in FPPG (21.6) for the season, while Chase Brown is No. 2 with 19.1 FPPG since Zack Moss’ second injury.
Per reports, CeeDee Lamb should be good to go, but if you don’t feel like waiting, I’m not risking a weak backup plan like Jalen Tolbert for Lamb, who is a fringe WR2/3 with Cooper Rush.

WEEK 14 SLEEPERS

QUARTERBACK

Caleb Williams, CHI — The entire team is falling apart, and while the 49ers have still been relatively solid at not giving up passing yards, they’ve been vulnerable to QBs running.

RUNNING BACK

Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG — The recent use is frustrating, but it’s one of the best matchups, and we have six teams on a bye.
Tony Pollard, TEN — Tyjae Spears was rarely used in his return, it’s a good matchup, and Pollard sees more work when the Titans are close or winning… which should be the case.

WIDE RECEIVER

Calvin Ridley, TEN — The Titans are going to burn me, aren’t they? See the Ridley notes. See the matchup. See the upside for a WR1 finish.
Jakobi Meyers, LV — It’s a good matchup for Meyers’ ability — he takes advantage of Cover-3, and the Bucs are Cover-3 heavy.
Jordan Addison, MIN — It’s a thin week, and like Meyers, Addison sees an uptick against Cover-3, which the Falcons use third most.

TIGHT END

Jake Ferguson, DAL — Assuming he returns, and if not, you can go back to Luke Schoonmaker. Even Cooper Rush can’t mess up this matchup, and he looks to his tight ends a decent amount.

FUN WITH RANKS

Ben G. actually suggested this fun list before “we” did it on the site, so it was already planned with the NBA Cup happening. I’m still ranking my favorites, and going to keep it to 10, but I’m also including my for “Worst Place” pick(s).

Top 10 NBA Cup Court Designs (even though the tournament is still kinda dumb to me)

Orlando Magic — Apparently I’ll have a few grey courts, but the Magic grey isn’t boring, the stars aren’t overwhelming, and it’s just a perfect mix of everything for me.
New Orleans Pelicans — Maybe I’m a sucker for blue and red, but I like this court… a lot. I think the logo court design is a perfect blend too, but some people seem to hate it.
Portland Trail Blazers — It’s close over the next one, and while I like the Lakers’ design a tad more (you’ll see another theme of skylines), the colors feel better here than the yellow straining the eyes a bit.
Los Angeles Lakers — See above. Great use of everything, but the yellow knocks it down a few spots (not that they can do anything about it, haha).
Charlotte Hornets — All I can think about is “Grandmama” and using Larry Johnson and Alonzo Mourning to dominate in NBA Jam TE. Get me a Starter jacket!
New York Knicks — Similar to the Lakers, not much you can do about the color, and the three-color-phasing circles is the mandate (who knows why?), but the highlighter orange knocks it from top-spot contention. Love the skyline though.
Dallas Mavericks — The Bucks are very close, but why not green? Anyway, the Mavericks have the skyline, and I love seeing Luka Doncic shooting from the “other” arch.
Indiana Pacers — The “Boom Baby” callout is cool, and the colors mesh well with these designs.
Utah Jazz —I’m really not trying to like a lot of grey, but the color works better as a background design without pulling your eyes away from the action. Plus, the mountains are cool… and taking advantage of the dumb Nuggets for not using them. What?!
Sacramento Kings — If they had spread out the crowns like the Magic stars, I would have liked it more. As it is, it barely made the Top 10 because the lines nearly give you vertigo if you look too long.

Worst Place (tie): Brooklyn Nets (get dizzy and sick just looking at it)… Detroit Pistons (it’s like someone threw all the logos on the table for ideas and someone else came in and thought, “What a weird choice, but here we go. Use them all!)… Memphis Grizzlies (boring much? And, am I just an idiot who had to be told that was MEM on the court?)… see, I don’t like all the grey.

WEEK 14 FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTIONS

🚨 HEADS UP 🚨 These can differ from my rankings, and MY RANKS are the order I’d start players outside of added context, such as, “Need highest upside, even if risky.” Also, based on 4-point TDs for QB, 6-point rest, and Half-PPR

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