The word rivalry is thrown around a lot in sports. But in the case of the Bills and Chiefs, there’s really no other way to describe it. On Sunday, the two teams will meet for the eighth time in five seasons — three of which were in the playoffs.
They are bonded together by having Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, two of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL, and being two perennial AFC contenders. But it goes deeper than that. Bills coach Sean McDermott got his first big coaching chance in Philadelphia working for now Chiefs coach Andy Reid. In 2017, the Bills traded their pick to the Chiefs for them to move up for Mahomes. The Chiefs have also been the primary gatekeepers of the Bills not accomplishing their playoff goals.
This matchup has yielded some of the most memorable games in recent history. Add in the fact that Patrick Mahomes has never lost in Buffalo, and you get a matchup rife with intrigue and implications. And, oh, by the way, they have the two best records in the AFC.
So. with so many things to ponder for this matchup, here’s what stands out ahead of another likely memorable evening with the entire world watching.
If the Bills have any hope for the No. 1 seed, Sunday is close to must-win
For as good as the Bills have been over the previous five seasons, making the playoffs in each of them and advancing to at least the divisional round over the last four, they have never had a bye in the first round. Getting the top seed comes with playing at home throughout the AFC playoffs, but it would be less about getting home-field advantage, as the last two playoff exits have both occurred in Orchard Park.
Getting an entire week to recuperate before that divisional round game, being the only AFC team to do so, along with knowing that they’ll face the team that is, at best, the No. 4 seed, is a tremendous advantage. Needing only two home wins to go to the Super Bowl is another huge leg up that they’ve never had. Then, if they were to move on, the AFC Championship Game would be played in Buffalo for the first time in 21 years, creating another obvious advantage.
However, without a win over the Chiefs on Sunday, it’s extremely unlikely the Bills get enough to go their way to take the top spot in the AFC, should Patrick Mahomes remain healthy the rest of the way. If the Chiefs were to win, they would be 10-0, with the Bills heading to their bye at 8-3 and also placing the head-to-head tiebreaker in the Chiefs’ hands. The Bills would need to be perfect the rest of the season and the Chiefs would have to lose at least four of their final seven games.
While a 3-4 record in seven games isn’t outlandish, it becomes a lot less likely when you look at the Chiefs’ remaining schedule. Three of their next four opponents are against teams buried in their conference standings — the Panthers, Raiders and Browns. The other game is against the Chargers, albeit in Kansas City. From there, the Chiefs close out against the Texans, Steelers and Broncos.
Not only would a loss on Sunday make the Chiefs tough to catch, but it would also bring the Ravens (7-3) and Texans (6-4) back into the mix to pass the Bills for AFC seeding. With losses to both teams in back-to-back weeks, the Bills wouldn’t hold the tiebreaker on any of the three likeliest division-winning teams. The Steelers are also in the mix in the AFC North, and have the tiebreaker over the Bills right now with a better conference record. A loss against the Chiefs could wind up as the catalyst for the Bills getting the third or fourth seed.
So, even if the Bills players and coaches aren’t thinking about the top seed in mid-November, it would be a shock if the front office wasn’t mindful of the seeding ramifications. Sunday could wind up being a now-or-never situation for them to get the No. 1 seed, which could improve their overall odds of finally getting past the rest of the AFC and to the Super Bowl.
The Amari Cooper boost
After Bills top receiver Amari Cooper spent last week not doing much during practice due to a wrist injury and did not play against the Colts, he took a big step forward in his participation. Cooper was taking passes from Allen during the open portion of Thursday’s practice, something he didn’t do at all a week ago while sporting a small cast on his left wrist. Cooper said that he feels things are heading in the right direction to play on Sunday, and that would be a critical development for the offensive environment around Allen.
The Bills already know they’ll be without rookie receiver Keon Coleman (wrist). Their top tight end, Dalton Kincaid (knee), might also be unable to play. However, getting Cooper back into the lineup would help take a lot of pressure off Allen, who would have had a limited pass-catcher room to work with. If he plays, Cooper is likely to see a lot of Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie, and that will be a fun matchup between two extremely talented players.
As a boundary receiver, Cooper would allow the Bills to use Mack Hollins or Curtis Samuel, or both, more sparingly. Samuel is likelier to see his role reduced due to Hollins’ big game last week and how the team has used them throughout the year when healthy. Though it is fair to wonder how many snaps Cooper can play. Not only is he working through a wrist injury that forced him to miss two games, but he’s only been with the team for a month and has been limited in practice for most of it.
Both factors could impact just how much the Bills feel comfortable with having him on the field. It would be fair to expect at least over 50 percent of snaps, given that’s where he was before the injury, with the potential that it could push closer to the 65 to 75 percent range if deemed healthy enough. However, Cooper’s impact will be felt regardless of how much he plays, even when they don’t target him on passing plays.
What about Spencer Brown and Dalton Kincaid?
For the first time since the 2022 season, the Bills are in serious jeopardy of seeing their offensive lineman ironman streak end. For the entire 2023 season and through all ten games of 2024, the intended top five along the offensive line has started every single game. But with Spencer Brown nursing an ankle injury that has kept him out of two straight practices, the Bills will see their inexperienced offensive line depth tested for the first time. Brown has stated that he would like to push through the injury, though with the Bills taking the conservative approach this year in most situations and a bye week to follow in Week 12, resting Brown appears to be the likeliest approach. It’s not a certainty at this point because there’s always the chance Brown can get on the practice field Friday and convince the team he’s ready. However, in similar situations, the Bills have leaned toward resting the player.
Without Brown, Ryan Van Demark would make his first career start. Van Demark spent the entire 2022 season on the practice squad, made the team last year but played only sparingly, and has done the same this year. The book on Van Demark is that his best position is at left tackle, with that being where he’s most experienced. When placed at right tackle throughout the summer, Van Demark struggled on that side in pass protection.
His matchup will mainly consist of working against George Karlaftis, who leads the team in sacks (4.0) and is second on the team in pressure rate (11.2 percent) behind only Chris Jones. Van Demark playing could also create a pressure point advantage for Jones when lined up against right guard O’Cyrus Torrence. The Bills offensive line has played very well as a unit, helping each other out against tough matchups. But Torrence struggled on some pass-blocking reps against Colts defensive lineman DeForrest Buckner, which is worthy of keeping an eye on as a matchup in the game.
As for Kincaid, like Brown, he missed the first two practices of the week, which does not bode well for his chances of playing Sunday. Unlike Brown’s situation, the Bills have perhaps their top backup player on the entire roster behind Kincaid in Dawson Knox, so I’d expect to see more Knox and 11 personnel looks than usual and some Quintin Morris mixing in here or there.
A quietly big opportunity for A.J. Epenesa
While Greg Rousseau rightfully gets the attention as the Bills’ top pass rusher, this matchup will yield an advantage for his fellow starter on the opposite side, A.J. Epenesa. The Chiefs are likely to have starting left tackle Wanya Morris available, though having allowed a pressure rate of 7.3 percent this season, Morris remains the most significant liability in their starting lineup. Epenesa is at his best on pass-rushing downs, and with plenty of attention likely to shade toward Rousseau and defensive tackle Ed Oliver, that allows for some real one-on-one chances for Epenesa against Morris. Epenesa only plays at right defensive end. Rousseau moonlights to that side when Von Miller enters the game on some third-down plays, but it’s mostly Epenesa on that side.
Matt Milano begins to ramp up, but what are fair expectations?
The Bills’ season outlook certainly improved this week when they announced they opened the 21-day practice window for star linebacker Matt Milano, with the quick caveat that he would not play Sunday against the Chiefs. Even though Milano is out this week, his return is likely just around the corner. By rule, the Bills must put him on the 53-man roster by Dec. 4, a few days ahead of their game against the Rams. Given that Milano is already going through practice and looks mostly like himself, it wouldn’t be a shock if they activated him even before that deadline, perhaps even ahead of their Week 13 game against San Francisco. After all, they have a roster spot open for him after placing Baylon Spector on injured reserve last week without ever filling the spot.
But when Milano is activated, there’s a legitimate chance they’re going to take it slow with him and his defensive role. Back in 2020, when Milano was returning from a longer in-season injury, they had him work in on third downs for his first three games while usual backup A.J. Klein played the early downs. Then, after three games in a bit role, Milano returned to his every-down starting spot. With the Bills taking Dorian Williams off the field for most third downs already, it wouldn’t be a surprise if that’s how the Bills approach Milano’s return to play with a ramp-up to his entire workload.
Projected inactives: WR Keon Coleman, TE Dalton Kincaid, OT Spencer Brown, LB Edefuan Ulofoshio
(**Subject to change after Friday’s practice)
Prediction: Bills 23, Chiefs 20
This matchup couldn’t be much tighter. When the Bills are on offense, they’ll have to contend with an outstanding Chiefs defense. The Bills haven’t had many teams be able to stymie their ground game this season. The Chiefs have the players to do so, but the Bills have been too proficient to be held down for the full game. The Bills should find some advantages through the air with Khalil Shakir working against nickel Chamarri Conner. If he plays, Cooper will boast a size advantage over McDuffie. But even with those advantages, the Chiefs pass rushers will make their presence felt.
When the Bills are on defense, it’s all in how they defend the short and intermediate levels against Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins. The two players attack separate areas of the field which makes it difficult for defenders to know what’s coming at them. Balance that with a solid running game that could force a safety to cheat up the field, and a speed receiver option to take advantage later in the game, and the Chiefs can conceivably attack at all levels. The play of Rousseau and Epenesa on the edges will be critical to creating longer third down distances for Mahomes.
Ultimately, I think this will be a push-pull game the entire way. However, with how well Allen is coming up with answers to mostly everything a defense throws at him, and with their run game prowess, I think the Bills will be able to challenge the Chiefs defense just enough to sneak away with a close victory, and a massive win for their potential playoff path.
(Top photo: Al Bello / Getty Images)
