COLUMBUS, Ohio — All of Ohio State’s goals for the season are right in front of the team, as long as it keeps winning.
The second-ranked Buckeyes (8-1, 5-1 Big Ten) have to win their last three games and a Big Ten title appearance would be locked up, as well as a College Football Playoff berth.
The good news for Ohio State is that, despite having a top-five game against Indiana on the schedule, it’ll be favored in every game the rest of the season beginning Saturday at Wrigley Field against Northwestern.
Ohio State will then return home for two massive games, Indiana and then The Game. While the ramifications are lower because Michigan has struggled, that still may be a win-and-get-in game for the Buckeyes.
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With so much at stake during the next few weeks, here are some thoughts I have as the Playoff approaches and the Buckeyes try to peak for a national title run.
Can the O-line hold up?
Ohio State’s offensive line spent the first six games of the season answering every question people had during the offseason.
The Buckeyes ran the ball at will, kept quarterback Will Howard off the ground and dictated the pace of play. Then Josh Simmons went down at left tackle, and the Buckeyes were in a tight spot, forced to play Zen Michalski at left tackle. When Michalski went down three quarters into his first start, even more questions came up. Could the Buckeyes, with a new-look offensive line, block Penn State? Could they block anybody to keep the national championship hopes alive?
Two weeks later, it seems like Ohio State has found some answers. Donovan Jackson has played well at left tackle, and former center Carson Hinzman is coming into his own at left guard.
In two games together, Ohio State has run for 174 yards per game and showed off its strength by running the ball 11 times in a row to win the Penn State game. It has been impressive, but the offensive line is about to face its three toughest tests.
Northwestern is 16th nationally in rush defense, giving up 108 yards per game. Indiana leads the country in rush defense, giving up just 72 yards per game, and has given up more than 100 yards just three times this season. Michigan is 12th in rush defense, giving up 102 yards per game.
We’re going to learn a lot about Ohio State’s offense in the final three weeks of the season because offensive coordinator Chip Kelly wants to dictate the pace of play, primarily on the ground. Indiana is the real concern because that defensive front is the real deal, but Northwestern and Michigan aren’t slouches.
If Ohio State is going to win the national championship or even make it to the Big 10 Championship Game, its offensive line is going to have to be up to the challenge.
Will defense continue to grow?
Ohio State’s defense has been as good as expected since the loss to Oregon. The Buckeyes have given up just one touchdown since their loss to Oregon, a 1-yard run against Nebraska. Ohio State has more red-zone stops (four) than touchdowns allowed (one) in the month since its loss to Oregon.
Part of that is the result of Ohio State’s talent showing up in a major way, but there has been an obvious mindset shift for the defense.
Ohio State learned in the loss to Oregon that it had to do more if it wanted to get pressure on the quarterback and be less predictable across the board. The Buckeyes have done just that.
They’ve been blitzing more, getting back to defensive coordinator Jim Knowles’ past coverage shells in the secondary and experimenting with his “Jack” position. All of it has led to some strong performances, none more impressive than the win at Penn State when the defense held the Nittany Lions’ once-explosive offense to just three offensive points.
Ohio State built on that win with a blowout of Purdue, and while Purdue is the worst team in the Big Ten and maybe the worst power conference team in the country, there was obvious growth shown on defense. The Buckeyes adjusted their blitzes to stop scrambling quarterbacks and the coverages are becoming more disguised and unique.
Ohio State leads the nation in giving up just 0.86 points per drive, according to TruMedia. That’s an impressive number, but with Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke coming to town next weekend, Ohio State will need to continue its defensive growth since the Oregon game if it wants a shot at a rematch in Indianapolis.
How will offense continue to evolve?
Each week, it seems like Ohio State is showing something new on offense, even if it’s just a small change from a formation it ran weeks prior.
It’s because Kelly, known for his creative game plans tailored to the specific defense Ohio State is playing, has been adding to what Ohio State does best.
For example, Ohio State has had a lot of success with super counters, especially in the red zone. But last week, Kelly added a read for Howard to pull the ball, which he did and nearly scored but got tackled at the 2-yard line.
That’s an offensive coordinator who knows he can’t be too predictable, especially this late in the season.
Ohio State is starting to show more of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins together, even watching one of them act as a lead blocker on the perimeter for the other.
Ohio State’s offense is in a nice groove; it’s averaging 38.6 points per game, and it hasn’t made it easy on defenses to know what is coming. It will continue to evolve, but Ryan Day and Kelly said there’s a line to balance between adding to the offense without losing the team’s identity.
Where the coaching staff finds that middle ground could be key to Ohio State’s postseason chances. Ohio State has talent across the board, and if it can out-scheme people with misdirection, options and more, it’ll bode well for its Playoff hopes.
Can special teams make a big impact?
Jayden Fielding made two important kicks in the win against Penn State, hitting from 46 and 39 yards in a seven-point win.
Ohio State also blocked a punt against Purdue and has 117 punt return yards, an improvement from last year’s 75 yards.
The special teams unit has improved this season, but there’s still a question of whether it can be a consistent difference-maker in the biggest games. The last thing Ohio State needs is a repeat of the 2022 Peach Bowl missed kick from Noah Ruggles or giving up an onside kick like it did against Oregon.
Can the Buckeyes earn the No. 5 seed?
If Ohio State takes care of business against Northwestern, it will have another top-five matchup to prepare for against Indiana.
A win would mean Ohio State is just one week away from its first trip to the Big Ten title game since 2020, while a loss would mean Ohio State will be looking at a first-round Playoff game. But for the sake of this argument, let’s assume Ohio State wins out, which I believe will be the case.
If Ohio State goes to the Big Ten title game at 11-1, it will have two top-five wins. It will have played in three top-five matchups in the regular season, becoming just the eighth team ever to do that and the first since LSU in 2011.
A rematch with Oregon would make it four, and if Ohio State loses another classic to the Ducks, the Playoff committee is going to have a difficult discussion about whether one-loss Notre Dame, Penn State or Indiana deserves the No. 5 seed over a two-loss Ohio State team with that kind of schedule strength.
That might be a tough argument for Ohio State to win, but the resume could help. Regardless, a lot is going to happen between now and the Dec. 8 selection show.
Ohio State can control its destiny by just winning every game, but if it loses, where to slot Ohio State will be one of the biggest discussion topics for the committee.
(Top photo of TreVeyon Henderson: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
