What Edmonton Oilers management must reckon with in roster construction

The Edmonton Oilers are off to a better start in 2024-25 than one year ago.

The team’s October record this year (5-5-1) was miles better than the disaster of 2023-24 (2-5-1), which ultimately led to Jay Woodcroft losing his job as head coach and Jack Campbell losing his grip on an NHL starting goaltender job.

That gives general manager Stan Bowman and his coaching staff (led by Kris Knoblauch, now coaching in his first full NHL season) some opportunities to audition players and unlock slow starts by trusted veterans.

The fan base has no such patience and there are many calling for all manner of drastic moves.

Here’s a look at some of the ideas floating around online, why Bowman is unlikely to make these moves and the things that fans should really be worrying over.

Trading Nurse?

I interact with Oilers fans daily through radio and at The Athletic. No subject is more of a lightning rod issue than Darnell Nurse.

A large portion of the fan base wants him traded, even though that’s impossible.

Bowman is unable to deal Nurse because of the no-movement clause in his current contract. The NMC eases before the 2026-27 season, but management cannot move Nurse until then without his consent.

Why would Nurse agree to a trade? He has a chance to win the Stanley Cup in Edmonton with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and other players who have been his teammates with the Oilers.

Some have even suggested a buyout, but PuckPedia’s math paints a gloomy picture.

The sentiment toward Nurse is misguided for two reasons.

Finding Nurse a solid partner over the years has been difficult but he has been productive for years (most recently with Cody Ceci). Looking at his partners year by year at five-on-five shows several third-pairing talents and inexperienced players.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

On the roster right now, Nurse with Evan Bouchard is a workable pairing that has delivered a 52 percent goal share and a 61 percent expected goal share at five-on-five over the past three seasons, via Natural Stat Trick.

Nurse is a productive NHL defenceman, and the Oilers need him to be at his best in order to win the Stanley Cup.

Edmonton’s new management just traded the best partner he has had in years and has been unable to settle on his partner this year.

Nurse doesn’t pick his partners. Management and coaching make those decisions and need to find solutions.

The other reason anger toward Nurse is misguided? Two Oilers managers (Peter Chiarelli and Ken Holland) signed Nurse to bridge deals, effectively blowing through the RFA seasons leading up to his current contract.

Nurse bet on himself, played the market correctly, and cashed in with a lucrative contract. Edmonton is a strong entrepreneurial city. Nurse believed in his own abilities, that’s basically the mantra of the city.

Thousands of self-made men and women should be celebrating Nurse. Why isn’t it happening? The cap hit is a major hurdle for roster construction.

Bowman has a right to be frustrated by the Nurse contract, but the blame doesn’t lie with the player.

Fans failing to recognize the culpability of previous management in the current Nurse deal may be slow to recognize the next dangerous contract situation. Don’t worry, I have that for you in a minute.

Getting a goalie?

Stuart Skinner has come under fire for his early-season performance, with some fans believing the organization blew an opportunity to upgrade at the position over the summer.

There are better goaltenders than Skinner scattered across the NHL. Those alternatives are wildly expensive.

Edmonton has deployed Skinner in goal for 35 playoff games over the last two seasons. That’s a significant investment in a young player (he turned 26 last week) who should have several more productive seasons ahead of him.

Skinner’s cap hit ($2.6 million this and next season) and his impressive five-on-five save percentage during his full seasons as a starter makes him an ideal fit for the Edmonton roster.

Consider the leaders in five-on-five save percentage in the last two complete seasons, along with the cap hit for each individual goaltender.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

Skinner’s cap hit and performance over the last two seasons put him in the upper half of the NHL, which makes him a value deal. The Oilers can’t trade for most of these names, as the cap hit is too much to accommodate based on current investment levels across the roster.

That applies to this year, next year and beyond.

The Draisaitl contract added to what Oilers fans hope will be long-term deals for McDavid and Bouchard, makes an inexpensive starter in net one of the key components for the Oilers.

Skinner has played well. He’s gaining experience. The upset from Oilers fans comes due to a small sample. The best way forward for Edmonton in goal is Skinner. If he struggles badly, Bowman might cast about for a veteran replacement like Marc-Andre Fleury. Even that is complicated, as Fleury has a no-movement clause in his contract with the Minnesota Wild.

Avoiding another offer sheet

No one is suggesting it, but then again no one was talking about offer sheets for Philip Broberg or Dylan Holloway a year ago.

Bouchard is an option for an offer sheet in the summer of 2025.

A rival team with plenty of cap room (Puck Pedia has the Flames with $35 million in cap room for 2025-26) could offer an outrageous offer sheet to Bouchard.

Even if the Oilers are in a position to match, it would hammer the cap and leave the organization in dire straits. It might be a long shot, but after the headlines over the St. Louis Blues offer sheets in late summer, another devastating offer sheet would be impossible to defend.

What can Bowman do? One of the issues he faces is the large number of aging players on long-term deals with substantial trade protection.

It’s a big issue.

Here are the veterans that Bowman will have to deal with, along with cap hits and dates when the no-movement clauses ease.

Draisaitl is listed first, as his new contract ($14 million AAV) is more than McDavid’s current deal ($12.5 million AAV). Draisaitl is in the last year of his current deal, with McDavid having this and next season on the old contract.

Bowman has little room to move. A veteran like Evander Kane, who is currently injured, will have to be a trade consideration for management no matter how well he plays over the remainder of this season and the playoffs.

Zach Hyman can be traded in the summer of 2026, Nurse in the summer of 2027 and those things may occur depending on how much the cap increases during those seasons.

Holland signed so many veterans to long-term deals the next few years are going to be painful. The plan surely was to win the Stanley Cup and then worry about the rest. The “rest” is coming home to roost. The Draisaitl deal was a must-sign, and getting McDavid and Bouchard signed is also vital.

Bowman may not be able to sign Bouchard before offer-sheet season arrives. If that’s the case, he may be facing an impossible situation next summer: Trade Bouchard or match a poison-pill offer sheet.

Building mid-level value contracts

Holland created value contracts via soul-crushing qualifying offers and the squeezing of young players like Broberg, Holloway, Ryan McLeod and Ethan Bear.

Everyone saw how that turned out.

Bowman has some nice players making less than $3 million this season.

Some of those names should give the team a strong foundation for value contracts in 2025-26. Leading candidates include Skinner, Brett Kulak, Mattias Janmark and Vasily Podkolzin.

Ty Emberson should get a contract, but there is some danger there. He becomes a Group 6 free agent next year if he’s played fewer than 80 career games in the NHL. That means he’ll need to play 40 more games before the end of this season.

Fans may remember the Oilers losing Tyler Pitlick to free agency in a similar fashion in the summer of 2017.

Bottom line

Fans who want Nurse traded, or an upgrade on Skinner, are reacting to short-term issues and things that will not change. Expect both men to flourish and be a big part of the team over the next several seasons.

If there’s a need to worry, there are major issues to keep fans awake at night.

We’re just past Halloween, but few things are scarier than a possible Bouchard offer sheet.

Keeping Emberson healthy for 40 more games requires lit candles and clean living.

If you’re an Oilers fan looking for something to worry about, there are many more plausible, and scary, options beyond Nurse’s no-movement contract and Skinner’s early struggles in a small sample.

(Photo of Darnell Nurse and Stuart Skinner: Walter Tychnowicz / USA Today)