As the St. Louis Cardinals reset, closer Ryan Helsley appears perhaps their most obvious trade candidate. But teams talking to the Cardinals are under the impression the team will hold Helsley, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak does not dispute that point.
“It’s something we will always remain open-minded to, but our plan is to have him be part of our organization,” Mozeliak told The Athletic on Thursday.
Helsley, entering his age 30 season, is projected to earn $8.5 million in his final year of arbitration before he is eligible for free agency. He is coming off a season in which he earned a major-league high 49 saves in 53 opportunities, posted a 2.04 ERA in 66 1/3 innings and won the Trevor Hoffman Award as the best closer in the National League. And his trade value will diminish if the Cardinals wait until the trade deadline to move him.
A full season of a player is more valuable than two months, particularly when any team that acquires Helsley during the offseason would gain the opportunity to extend him a qualifying offer and receive draft-pick compensation if he departed.
Players traded in the middle of a season are not eligible for qualifying offers. The potential for an acquiring team to give Helsley a QO would enable the Cardinals to ask more for him now than they might get at the deadline. On the other hand, relievers are always in demand, and the return at the deadline might be comparable to what the Cardinals would receive this winter – assuming Helsley stays healthy.
The Cardinals, while open to trading third baseman Nolan Arenado, are not engaging in a full teardown. First baseman Willson Contreras and right-hander Sonny Gray both expressed their desire to stay with the club, and the team evidently wants to keep the product reasonably competitive. At least to start the season.
The Milwaukee Brewers are taking a different approach than the Cardinals. They qualified for the postseason but as usual have little payroll flexibility, increasing the likelihood they will trade closer Devin Williams, who is projected to earn $7.7 million in his final year of arbitration before becoming a free agent.
Only the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen last season produced a lower ERA and opponents’ OPS than the Brewers’. Naturally, teams are inquiring on a number of Brewers relievers, but Williams, a two-time winner of the Trevor Hoffman Award, is by far the most proven.
The free-agent market includes a number of late-inning options, from Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman and Clay Holmes to Carlos Estévez, Blake Treinen and Kirby Yates. But with Helsley less available than initially expected, perhaps the Brewers can make the kind of deal for Williams they made for Corbin Burnes last winter.
Ideally, any return for Williams would include a young starting pitcher. The Brewers’ rotation presently consists of Freddy Peralta, Tobias Myers, Aaron Civale, Brandon Woodruff and perhaps DL Hall or Aaron Ashby, the latter of whom finished the season strong.
The younger options include top prospect Jacob Misiorowski, a second-round pick in 2022, and two pitchers the Brewers recently added to their 40-man roster, Chad Patrick (acquired from the Oakland Athletics in the Abraham Toro trade last offseason), and Logan Henderson (a fourth rounder in 2021).
Not bad, but the Brewers do not know what they will get from Woodruff, who missed all of last season coming off shoulder surgery. Myers will be hard-pressed to match his spectacular 3.00 ERA in 138 innings as a rookie. Only Peralta qualifies as a true front-of-the-rotation starter.
Like the Brewers, the Guardians were a playoff qualifier. But it should surprise no one that Cleveland is open to trade offers for first baseman Josh Naylor and outfielder Lane Thomas, both of whom are entering their walk years. MLB Trade Rumors projects Naylor to earn $12 million in arbitration, Thomas $8.3 million. Rinse and repeat: When a player’s salary rises and his years of control diminish, small-market teams often look for a way out.
The Guardians are unsettled in center and right, but Thomas might be the easier player to part with, considering he only joined the club at the trade deadline. Naylor, acquired from the San Diego Padres at the 2020 deadline, has emerged not only as one of the Guardians’ most valuable position players, but also as a galvanizing force in the clubhouse and dugout.
Kyle Manzardo looms as a potential replacement for Naylor, but the Guardians’ best lineup against right-handed pitching would include both left-handed hitters, one at DH. Coming off a magical run to the ALCS, the Guardians should be adding to their offense, not subtracting. As they face the losses of Shane Bieber and Alex Cobb on top of Matthew Boyd in free agency, they also could use rotation help. Per Fangraphs, their estimated payroll of $98 million is below last year’s figure of $104 million.
For six months now, I’ve found the Toronto Blue Jays baffling. They sold at the trade deadline, but held the pieces that could have brought the most in return, first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and shortstop Bo Bichette (Bichette’s value admittedly was down). Club officials repeatedly have said they plan to compete in 2025, and sources briefed on the Juan Soto discussions say the team is making a strong push for the free-agent outfielder. The other bidders in the Soto sweepstakes, however, are better positioned to compete long-term, particularly with Guerrero and Bichette unsigned as they enter their final year under club control.
The Jays, though, seem to be banking on their group of young position players to keep the team from crashing in 2026 even if Soto signs elsewhere and Guerrero and Bichette depart. Rather than acquire young prospects at the deadline, they opted for three major-league ready players – Will Wagner and Joey Loperfido for Yusei Kikuchi, Jonatan Clase for Yimi Garcia. Part of 2025 will be devoted to finding out what those three and other young Jays hitters can contribute in ‘26 and beyond.
As it stands, the Jays don’t have enough at-bats for all of their youngsters, increasing the possibility of the team making at least one trade. Wagner plays first and second, Loperfido first and outfield, Clase the outfield. Davis Schneider plays left and second, Spencer Horwitz first and second. Leo Jiménez eventually could replace Bichette at short. Orelvis Martinez, who was suspended for 80 games last season after testing positive for a banned substance, is another who plays second. Addison Berger plays third and right, Steward Berroa the outfield.
Can some combination of those players provide say, 60 percent of Guerrero’s and Bichette’s combined value, with the Jays acquiring established stars to play other positions? Perhaps. But the strategy still seems odd, not to mention risky. Guerrero is an anchor to build around. And the best guess is that he will be gone.
It’s no secret the Arizona Diamondbacks are open to trading left-hander Jordan Montgomery, who exercised his $22.5 million player option after a dismal first season with the club. But club officials are somewhat mixed on the idea, knowing Montgomery is a strong candidate to bounce back next season.
Montgomery, who turns 32 later this month, had a 3.68 ERA in his first seven seasons. But after lingering on the free-agent market until March 29, he started the season in the minors, then stumbled in the majors, finishing with a 6.23 ERA in 117 innings.
The Diamondbacks, after firing pitching coach Brent Strom, assistant pitching coach Dan Carlson and bullpen coach Mike Fetters, brought in an entirely new pitching department. Their new pitching coach is Brian Kaplan, who was an assistant with the Phillies the past three seasons and before that was a co-founder of Cressey Sports Performance, where Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and others have trained.
If Montgomery is likely to rebound, why shouldn’t the Diamondbacks reap the benefits themselves? Perhaps his $22.5 million salary will look more appealing once the free-agent market settles, enabling the team to clear most if not all of his money and reinvest its savings in the offense and bullpen. Otherwise, the Diamondbacks might be better off keeping Montgomery, and making him Kaplan’s first project.
Free-agent first baseman Christian Walker is from Norristown, Pa., in the eastern part of the state. Pittsburgh is in the western part, but Walker would be an ideal fit for the Pirates, who are seeking to bolster their offense.
The problem for the Pirates is that Walker is an ideal fit for a number of clubs, including the New York team that fails to sign Juan Soto. And the idea of the Pirates winning a bidding against with the Mets or Yankees – or any club, for that matter – is almost laughable.
The Pirates began working out Bryan Reynolds at first in late September, and expect him to play the position at least part-time in 2025. But after finishing 24th in the majors in runs, they ideally would add a first baseman and at least one corner outfielder.
Club officials were encouraged by the play of Oneil Cruz after they moved him to center in late August. Learning the position on the fly, Cruz was +2 in Outs Above Average in 23 games and -3 in Defensive Runs Saved. Whichever metric you believe, the Pirates expect he will develop into a plus defender in center.
The Athletic’s Matt Gelb contributed to this story.
(Top photo of Ryan Helsley: Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
