Call them the Soto Dominoes, the free agents that will fall once free-agent outfielder Juan Soto picks his next team. The impact of the Soto signing will be profound and far-reaching not only for the bidding clubs, but practically every segment of this year’s market.
Consider …
The outfield market
Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández, ranked ninth and 11th on The Athletic’s Top 40 Free Agent Big Board, currently are on hold while the Soto negotiations continue.
The five known Soto bidders are the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers. Like Soto, both Santander and Hernández rejected qualifying offers, so any team that signs them will be subject to draft-pick compensation. But most if not all of the Soto losers figure to pursue them. And other teams also will be in the mix.
The best guess with Hernández is that he will return to the Dodgers on a three-year deal for more than $60 million. But with Soto, the Dodgers are doing what they often do with elite free agents, hanging around the backboard, seeing if the ball somehow falls into their hands.
That strategy failed in 2019 with Bryce Harper, to whom the Dodgers offered a three-year deal with opt-outs and an average annual value in the $35 million to $40 million range. Soto almost certainly would reject the same type of short-term, high-dollar offer.
If Hernández somehow does not land back with the Dodgers, the Blue Jays might be his most logical destination. The Jays never should have traded Hernández to the Seattle Mariners two years ago for reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko. Re-signing him could be a major step toward the Jays retaining Vladimir Guerrero Jr., with whom Hernández is very close. Signing Soto, on the other hand, almost certainly would ensure Guerrero’s departure after next season, unless the Jays are willing to carry two monster contracts.
Santander, 30, is a switch-hitter coming off a career-high 44 home runs, and two years younger than Hernández. Teams left without a power-hitting outfielder will be willing to overlook Santander’s deficiencies, starting with his career .307 on-base percentage. His defense is another question — Baltimore Orioles manager Brandon Hyde raved about Santander’s play in right field, but the metrics painted a less glowing portrait.
The infield market
At least two of the teams in the Soto sweepstakes, the Yankees and Red Sox, could turn their attention to free-agent infielders as part of a Plan B. As with the outfield market, the demand exceeds the supply, putting shortstop Willy Adames and third baseman Alex Bregman in excellent position.
Either Adames (No. 6 on The Athletic’s Big Board) or Bregman (No. 7), could be of interest to the Red Sox if they are serious about moving Rafael Devers from third base to first (Sean McAdam of Mass Live mentioned a trade for the St. Louis Cardinals’ Nolan Arenado also could be possible).
The Yankees, if they miss on Soto, could look at adding a left-side infielder, along with free-agent first baseman Christian Walker and additional pitching. Some of the Soto also-rans might claim, “we can build a more complete team without him, and for less money.” And while it sounds like loser’s talk, considering Soto is a once-in-a-generation talent, there might be some merit to that argument.
Both Bregman and Adames, however, are drawing attention outside of the Soto market. The Houston Astros are continuing their efforts to re-sign Bregman, while also setting up contingencies. The team is staying in contact with Adames, and has expressed interest in another free agent, Jorge Polanco, as a fallback option.
In the case of Adames, if the Astros are going to spend that kind of money, why not invest it in Bregman, a face of their franchise? The same logic would apply to a possible trade for Arenado, as The Athletic’s Chandler Rome recently mentioned.
Adames would be a better fit for the San Francisco Giants, who desperately need a shortstop. As The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly reported, the Giants anticipate a reduction in payroll. Perhaps Ha-Seong Kim would be a more suitable fit, coming at a lower price as he recovers from shoulder surgery and without the additional cost of a draft pick (both Adames and Bregman received qualifying offers). But Kim, even when healthy, would not make as much of an offensive impact as Adames.
The starting pitching market
Just as the shortage of quality hitters could spur teams that miss out on Soto to pivot quickly, so might the shrinking supply of quality starters.
With left-handers Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi off the board, the best remaining free-agent starters are Corbin Burnes (No. 2 on the Big Board), Max Fried (No. 4), Jack Flaherty (No. 10), Sean Manaea (No. 12) and Nathan Eovaldi (No. 13).
The team that lands Soto might want to add one of the above pitchers as well. The teams that strike out on Soto and adopt more of a portfolio approach also will be in the market. The Red Sox, in particular, probably should be involved either way.
The Sox’s biggest need is a top-of-the-rotation starter. If they come away with Soto, they might prefer to complement him with a trade for the Chicago White Sox’s Garrett Crochet, who will earn a projected $2.9 million in arbitration and remain under club control through 2026. But wouldn’t the better flex be to hold their prospects and pursue Burnes or Fried? A Soto-Burnes combo, while probably unrealistic, certainly would meet the definition of “full throttle.”
The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have been down this path before. In Dec. 2019, they pursued free-agent right-hander Gerrit Cole but ultimately signed another Scott Boras client, lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu. It would not be surprising to see them follow the same blueprint if they failed to land Soto, adding Burnes or Fried as well as Hernández or Santander.
Get the idea?
The Soto Dominoes are going to fall. It’s just a matter of time.
The Baltimore Orioles were in on Snell and Kikuchi, pitchers who were particularly attractive to them because they were not tied to qualifying offers and could be signed without losing a draft pick.
Eovaldi and Flaherty fall into the same category. Fried, Manaea, Luis Severino and Nick Pivetta, all of whom received (and rejected) qualifying offers, do not. Signing any of them would cost the Orioles their third-highest draft pick, which is no small consideration.
The Orioles, who already hold the 19th overall selection, stand to gain two picks in the 30s if Burnes and Santander depart and each of their free-agent contracts exceeds $50 million. Three picks in the top 40 would be quite a coup for a team that under general manager Mike Elias has drafted well. Then again, the Orioles could lose one and still have two in the top 40.
In a perfect world, Baltimore would re-sign Burnes. But even under new ownership, it seems doubtful the Orioles will outbid the Soto also-rans, all of whom will be itching to spend. So, Baltimore has been active on other fronts, extending offers to multiple free-agent starting pitchers.
It’s conceivable the Orioles could land two starters, each at average annual values of more than $10 million. But such an outcome is not particularly likely. The market for starters is highly competitive and the Orioles also are looking to add a right-handed hitting outfielder and backup catcher.
With all the money the Dodgers are spending, why didn’t they just extend a qualifying offer to free-agent right-hander Walker Buehler? In part because Buehler likely would have said yes to the one-year, $21.05 million arrangement — and perhaps not all that happily.
Clubs generally operate under the principle that there is no such thing as a bad one-year contract, even at an inflated salary. But the Dodgers did not want to force the issue with Buehler, who had a 5.38 ERA in 16 starts in the regular season before completing the playoffs with 10 scoreless innings.
The qualifying offer would have damaged Buehler in the market, leaving him with almost no choice but to accept. The Dodgers, as a team that will pay the luxury tax, only would have received a pick after the fourth round if he rejected. This way, Buehler can negotiate a multiyear deal with the team of his choosing. Conceivably, that team could be the Dodgers. But other teams might value Buehler more.
Several clubs looking for a left-handed hitting DH are intrigued by Joc Pederson, who in 449 plate appearances for the Arizona Diamondbacks last season hit 23 home runs and produced a career-high .908 OPS.
The Diamondbacks want Pederson back. The Tampa Bay Rays also could use him, though it’s doubtful any free agent with options will choose to play at a minor-league ballpark in the summer Florida heat. The Texas Rangers are a more intriguing fit.
In 2023, the year they won the World Series, the Rangers ranked third in OPS against right-handed pitching. Last season, they ranked 26th, and their .683 OPS represented more than a 100-point dropoff from the year before.
A native of Palo Alto, Calif, Pederson seemingly would prefer to stay west of the Mississippi. In previous stints as a free agent, he signed with the Chicago Cubs, the San Francisco Giants twice (once by accepting a qualifying offer) and the Diamondbacks.
The question with the Rangers is whether owner Ray Davis will gain enough clarity on the team’s future local TV revenues to approve an increase in payroll later in the offseason.
The Rangers, who are pursuing their own regional sports network, are in an uncertain position for the second straight offseason. Last winter, coming off their first World Series title, the only free agent they signed for more than one year was right-hander Tyler Mahle, who was coming off Tommy John surgery and expected to be out for most of 2024.
Re-signing Eovaldi is the Rangers’ top priority. The bullpen, with relievers Kirby Yates, David Robertson, José Leclerc and Andrew Chafin all hitting the open market, needs to be reconstructed. And, as mentioned above, Texas wants to add more offense.
After trading for Carlos Santana and Justin Turner the past two deadlines, the Seattle Mariners want to acquire that type of veteran presence for an entire season, not just the final two months.
Santana will play next season at 39, Turner at 40. Both, however, are still above-average offensive players, and Santana just won his first Gold Glove at first base. Pete Alonso or Christian Walker would better fill the Mariners’ need at that position, but it would be an upset if Seattle emerged as the high bidder for either.
The Mariners also are looking to upgrade at third, believing they are positioned to handle second base internally with Dylan Moore, Ryan Bliss and — at some point next season — Cole Young, the 21st overall pick in the 2022 draft.
The Philadelphia Phillies’ Alec Bohm, an obvious target, faded after a monster April, batting only .258 with a .713 OPS. Teams view him as a good but not great player. Plus, Bohm stands to earn a projected $8.1 million in arbitration, with only one more year of club control remaining after that.
(Top photo of Juan Soto and Anthony Santander: Greg Fiume / Getty Images)
