All in all, the Toronto Maple Leafs have to be proud of their performance for nearly a month without Auston Matthews.
Nine games. Seven wins. It’s hard to do much better than that.
Clearly though, some issues need rectifying, specifically the precious lack of five-on-five offence. I’ve got some thoughts on that, plus Fraser Minten’s short-term future and the situation in the crease.
1. The league-low nine five-on-five goals the Leafs have scored in those nine games without Matthews have come from six players:
Bobby McMann: 3
William Nylander: 2
Mitch Marner: 1
Matthew Knies: 1
Fraser Minten: 1
Conor Timmins: 1
Five of the nine goals have come from two players. Or, in other words, the Leafs have four five-on-five goals in the last nine games from everyone not named McMann and Nylander.
Lagging production like this can’t reasonably continue, and will obviously be helped by the return of the NHL’s greatest five-on-five scorer. (Consider this: Since the start of the 2021-22 season, Matthews has 18 five-on-five goals more than the next closest player, David Pastrňák, and Pastrňák has played in 19 more games.)
The most notable player without even one five-on-five goal in that stretch: John Tavares. He’s gone 12 straight games, in fact, without a five-on-five goal. He last scored one about a month ago, with a pair in the Leafs win over Winnipeg on Oct. 28. And he scored one before that in Toronto’s win over New Jersey on the second night of the season. But that’s it for the season.
Tavares has played well in more demanding terrain without Matthews, especially for a guy in his 16th NHL season. And he does have three primary assists in that nine-game stretch. Yet, he clearly needs to start converting on his opportunities.
The Leafs aren’t deep enough to thrive without him.
Tavares’ expected goal total at this point is almost five. In other words, with the looks he’s gotten, he should have two more goals. In short, there’s reason to think he can provide more.
2. A couple more players who stick out: Marner and Knies, who have combined for two five-on-five goals over the nine-game stretch. (Knies missed two games to injury.)
Combine that with Tavares and that’s two goals, total, from three top-six forwards over nearly a month. The Leafs are going to need a lot more that, given how little they can expect (particularly with all the injuries) from their bottom two lines.
Dig a teeny bit deeper into the numbers and what’s notable is how few shots Marner and Knies have generated at five-on-five.
This idea that Marner has been shooting the puck more in Matthews’ absence: Not accurate, at least at five-on-five. Marner has totaled five shots on goal at five-on-five during the nine games without Matthews, the same number as Alex Steeves, Steven Lorentz and Pontus Holmberg and one less than Connor Dewar.
This is what Craig Berube is talking about when he says Marner needs to be more aggressive shooting the puck. And increasingly, Marner has delivered: Four of those five shots have come in the last three games, which means he had one in the previous six (he scored a breakaway goal against Utah on one of those shots).
Like Tavares, Marner has played quite well in Matthews’ absence. His impact has mostly come defensively and on special teams. He has four power-play goals since Matthews went out, plus one short-handed goal and one three-on-three overtime winner.
Marner, though, has only one five-on-five assist in Matthews’ absence. It’s his lone five-on-five assist in November (and was a secondary helper).
This was the thing with the Tavares-Marner combo in last year’s playoffs: They were excellent defensively but struggled to get much going on offence.
Marner is generating 1.97 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five this season, which would be the lowest mark of his career.
Last season: 2.68. The season before that: 2.78. The season before that: 3.47.
Knies seems likely to return on Saturday. Before the injury, he had mustered only five shots on goal at five-on-five over the previous seven games and eight in the last nine.
The Leafs need him to re-adopt the shot mentality he started the season with. He had five shots alone at five-on-five in the season opener against Montreal.
3. The underlying numbers aren’t pretty so far, but the Leafs should continue the Minten 3C experiment a little while longer.
First, here are Minten’s numbers in his 32 minutes at five-on-five:
Shot attempts: 19-42
Shots: 9-18
High danger attempts: 2-9
Goals: 1-1
Expected goals: 32 percent
Minten was on the ice for Florida’s lone five-on-five goal on Wednesday. Yet the Leafs still held their own in his nearly 10 minutes, even winning their minutes against the Panthers’ intimidating line of Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett.
Expected goals were around 53 percent overall for Minten. Not bad given the opponent.
This is as much about Minten as it is about the other options in the middle.
The Holmberg 3C experiment already failed. Holmberg’s offensive limitations were exposed even further as the 2C in Max Domi’s absence.
The Leafs have scored two five-on-five goals all season with Holmberg on the ice.
Domi’s return doesn’t appear imminent.
Minten might be able to bring similar defensive know-how to Holmberg, with more upside on offence, especially if the Leafs surround him with a little more talent (which may not be possible anytime soon).
If McMann misses Saturday’s game in Tampa, I suspect Berube may stick Holmberg (offensive issues aside) with Matthews, assuming he’s OK to return from this mysterious injury, and Nylander. That’s how the Leafs practised on Tuesday.
That would leave Knies to slide into McMann’s spot alongside Marner and Tavares.
Holmberg – Matthews – W. Nylander
Knies – Tavares – Marner
Robertson – Minten – Grebenkin/A. Nylander
Steeves – Dewar – Lorentz
Berube may also decide at some point soon here, given the offensive woes of his team, that he wants to hook Marner back with Matthews.
4. Anthony Stolarz made his first start in 11 days on Wednesday night and gave up four goals for only the third time all season.
That’s 10 goals against in the last three starts for Stolarz.
Do the Leafs give him the next start in Tampa anyway? Or do they go back to Joseph Woll, who has won his last four outings?
Woll started two in a row before Stolarz’s appearance in Florida and played quite well.
The Leafs are in a mildly tricky spot with their two goalies. They need to strike a balance between keeping both sharp and rolling, while also being mindful of their respective workloads. I wonder, for instance, if Stolarz lost some rhythm in the long layoff between starts. He’s already more than halfway to his career high for starts in a season.
I would go back to Stolarz on Saturday and turn to Woll on Monday when the team hosts Chicago. The Leafs play Wednesday, Friday and Saturday after that. Both goalies will be busy.
— Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and Evolving Hockey
(Top photo of John Tavares: Sam Navarro / Imagn Images)
