(Editor’s note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando’s Pick Six of Nov. 4, 2024.)
The Denver Broncos entered Week 9 ranked first in defensive EPA per play, partly because of a favorable schedule, but also because they dominated the one high-powered offense they faced when beating the then-healthy Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 27-6, in Week 3.
The Baltimore Ravens entered Week 9 with Lamar Jackson playing through soreness that caused him to miss multiple practices during the week.
Baltimore 41, Denver 10?
With a whopping 20.1 offensive EPA against Denver, the Ravens joined the 2007 New England Patriots and 2004 Indianapolis Colts, two of the great offenses in NFL history, on an exclusive list. Those are the only teams since 2000 to meet or exceed 13 offensive EPA in at least six of nine games to start a season, per TruMedia. Those Brady-quarterbacked Patriots did it seven times. The Manning-quarterbacked Colts did it six times, same as these Jackson-quarterbacked Ravens.
The Ravens now own two of the four best nine-game starts for offensive EPA per game since Jackson became the full-time starter in 2019.
| Rank | Team | OFF EPA/G |
|---|---|---|
|
1
|
+12.8
|
|
|
2
|
+11.5
|
|
|
3
|
+11.0
|
|
|
4
|
+10.3
|
|
|
5
|
+10.0
|
|
|
6
|
+8.8
|
|
|
7
|
+8.7
|
|
|
8
|
+8.5
|
|
|
9
|
+8.1
|
|
|
10
|
+7.9
|
The way this season is playing out, Jackson could emerge with his third league MVP award, while teammate Derrick Henry could be the choice as Offensive Player of the Year.
Jackson leads the NFL in EPA per pass play, passer rating, yards per attempt, pass completions longer than 15 yards and percentage of passes producing first downs. Henry leads the league in yards rushing, rushing touchdowns, scrimmage yards and rushes gaining at least 12 yards.
Jackson completed 16 of 19 passes for 280 yards with three touchdowns and a maximum 158.3 passer rating against Denver. Per Pro Football Reference, this was his sixth career game with as many or more touchdown passes than incompletions in games when he attempted at least 15 passes. Only Manning (seven times, averaging 25.7 attempts per game) and Drew Brees (six times on 27.8 average attempts) have as many of these games as Jackson, who has averaged 19.8 attempts in such games. Eight of Jackson’s 19 passes against Denver produced gains longer than 15 yards. No quarterback since at least 2000 has had more gains of 15-plus yards on fewer attempts.
There is one concern.
Jackson had only 4 yards rushing against the Broncos, his second-lowest total in 92 combined regular-season and playoff starts. That was a reflection of his leg injuries, which are the biggest concern, by far, for Jackson and the Ravens sustaining the success they’ve enjoyed to this point in the season.
The Cleveland Browns hit Jackson frequently and hit him hard last week, including in the legs. Jackson has games against the Bengals, Pittsburgh, the Chargers and Philadelphia before Baltimore’s Week 14 bye. The Ravens finish against the Giants, Steelers and Texans before a Week 18 rematch against the Browns.
It’s a schedule peppered with difficult defenses, which could put Jackson’s durability to the test.
(Photo: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
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