Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces growing pressure to step down as leader of his Liberal Party after the shock resignation of one of his longtime political allies earlier this week.
Chrystia Freeland, the country’s finance minister and deputy prime minister, said on Monday that she was resigning amid disagreements with Trudeau about how to handle US President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose steep tariffs on Canada.
The decision came amid months of questions over Trudeau’s leadership, as the prime minister has seen his popularity plummet in recent years amid increased costs of living and a housing crisis, among other issues.
Trump’s plan to impose 25-percent tariffs on Canada, announced in late November, spurred new criticism of Trudeau, with conservative lawmakers urging him to take action to counter the threat to the Canadian economy.
Amid the renewed pressure this week following Freeland’s resignation, Canadian media outlets have reported that Trudeau is considering his options.
Here’s a look at some of the potential ways forward.
Trudeau could decide to resign
Trudeau, who has served as Canada’s prime minister since 2015, could ultimately choose to step down as Liberal leader.
That would force the party to choose an interim leader to take his place while they organise a leadership convention to pick a permanent replacement.
It isn’t clear who the most likely candidate would be for any interim role.
Complicating matters is the fact that Canada must hold a federal election before late October 2025, giving the Liberals a tight window to make any leadership changes.
But Canadian historian Robert Bothwell told The Associated Press news agency that if another Liberal minister or two decides to step down or forgo re-election, Trudeau will be “toast, he will be forced to resign”.
Liberal caucus members could ask him to leave
While there is no formal party mechanism to remove Trudeau if he wants to stay on as prime minister, a majority of the Liberal caucus could pressure him to step down.
But while some Liberal MPs have publicly called on him to step aside, many seem to be sticking by Trudeau.
“It’s his decision. It’s always been his decision,” Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault told reporters in Ottawa before a Liberal caucus meeting on Monday, adding that he continued to have confidence in the prime minister.
So far, 13 Liberals have urged Trudeau to resign as leader, according to a tally by CBC News.
“I can say we’re not united,” MP Chad Collins, who is among those calling for Trudeau to step down, said on Monday. “I think the only path forward for us is to choose a new leader and to present a new plan to Canadians with a different vision.”
Opposition lawmakers could push out Liberal government
The Liberals currently have a minority of the seats in parliament, leaving them vulnerable should opposition lawmakers call a vote of no confidence.
As it currently stands, if all parties vote against the Liberals, Trudeau’s government will fall. If one opposition party abstains, he will stay in power.
So far, the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) has backed the Liberals amid attempts by the Conservatives to pass no-confidence votes this fall.
Like the Liberals, the NDP is polling poorly in advance of next year’s election and appears opposed to going to the polls before it is absolutely necessary. The federal vote must be held on or before October 20, 2025.
But NDP leader Jagmeet Singh said this week, however, that he believes Trudeau must resign.
“They’re fighting themselves instead of fighting for Canadians,” Singh said of the Liberals on Monday. “For that reason, today, I’m calling on Justin Trudeau to resign. He has to go.”
Still, the House of Commons adjourned on Tuesday for its winter break and will only return on January 27. That means opposition parties would have their first chance to organise a confidence vote some time after that.
If a no-confidence vote is successful, that would trigger an election.
It’s time for Justin Trudeau to resign.
Liberals are fighting each other – when Canadians need a Prime Minister who will fight for them.
It is more important than ever for people to stand together to fight the threat of Conservative cuts.
— Jagmeet Singh (@theJagmeetSingh) December 17, 2024
Trudeau could stay on
If Trudeau decides to stay on as leader, he will need to rebuild a sense of unity within his Liberal Party in the run-up to the looming election.
He also could prorogue parliament, which would formally end the current session without dissolving parliament. That would give him some breathing space — while avoiding a no-confidence vote.
Prorogation would delay the return of the House of Commons by several weeks while allowing the government to unveil a new plan for how it plans to run the country.
Still, it appears that the odds of Canadians heading to the polls early have gone up this week.
Trudeau can decide to dissolve parliament and go into an election at any time, leaving his political future up to the voters. In Canada, federal election campaigns must be between 37 and 51 days long.
Recent polls show the Liberals trailing the opposition Conservative Party by a huge margin, however, and the vote is widely expected to usher in a new Conservative government in Ottawa.
