The final College Football Playoff rankings will be revealed on Sunday, but Tuesday night’s penultimate Top 25 gave us an idea of what Ohio State’s fate will be.
After its 13-10 loss at home to Michigan, Ohio State lost any chance of a Big Ten championship and first-round bye. The Buckeyes (10-2) are still a lock for the Playoff, but the concern was that a loss would also knock them out of position to host a first-round game.
Tuesday’s reveal showed that the committee thinks highly of Ohio State’s two top-10 wins, ranking the Buckeyes No. 6. That makes them the No. 8 seed in the bracket, hosting No. 9 seed Tennessee.
Tuesday was close to the best-case scenario for Ohio State
Eight teams are a lock for the Playoff: Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee and Indiana.
SMU vs. Clemson for the ACC title, Arizona State vs. Iowa State for the Big 12 title and Boise State vs. UNLV for the Mountain West title are play-in games, with two of those winners getting first-round byes. That leaves Alabama for the final at-large bid, unless SMU loses to Clemson but stays ahead of the Crimson Tide and the ACC gets two teams in. (Or Boise State loses to UNLV and stays ahead.)
With that understood, the host teams seem to be almost locked in: the Big Ten championship loser and Notre Dame, with the SEC title game loser, Ohio State and Tennessee competing for the final two spots.
Being the No. 8 seed Tuesday means Ohio State is in hosting position now and likely won’t get passed by any at-large teams below it. That’s a big advantage for the Buckeyes, who haven’t lost at home to a team other than Michigan since Oregon in 2021.
The committee decided to pick Ohio State over Tennessee on Tuesday, believing it has a superior resume. It’s a debate that has been going on since the Vols were ranked ahead in the AP poll on Sunday.
Tennessee lost to Georgia 31-17, and it also was upset by Arkansas, which is 6-6. Its only Top 25 win is against No. 11 Alabama, which is on the bubble.
It could be argued that Ohio State’s home loss to Michigan (7-5) is worse than Tennessee’s road loss to Arkansas (though the Razorbacks have a worse record than the Wolverines), but the Buckeyes’ other loss was by one point at Oregon. They also gave No. 3 Penn State and No. 9 Indiana their only losses.
The Michigan game is fresh in everyone’s minds, but the committee showed that it prioritized the wins for Ohio State more than the bad loss to Michigan. There’s no reason to believe the Vols can pass the Buckeyes now, so it appears Ohio State is in good shape to host a Playoff game. Will it be against Tennessee?
| Rank | Team | Record | Prev. |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
 Oregon |
12-0
|
1
|
|
2
|
 Texas |
11-1
|
3
|
|
3
|
 Penn State |
11-1
|
4
|
|
4
|
 Notre Dame |
11-1
|
5
|
|
5
|
 Georgia |
10-2
|
7
|
|
6
|
 Ohio State |
10-2
|
2
|
|
7
|
 Tennessee |
10-2
|
8
|
|
8
|
 SMU |
11-1
|
9
|
|
9
|
 Indiana |
11-1
|
10
|
|
10
|
 Boise State |
11-1
|
11
|
|
11
|
 Alabama |
9-3
|
13
|
|
12
|
 Miami |
10-2
|
6
|
|
13
|
 Ole Miss |
9-3
|
14
|
|
14
|
 South Carolina |
9-3
|
15
|
|
15
|
 Arizona State |
10-2
|
16
|
|
16
|
 Iowa State |
10-2
|
18
|
|
17
|
 Clemson |
9-3
|
12
|
|
18
|
 BYU |
10-2
|
19
|
|
19
|
 Missouri |
9-3
|
21
|
|
20
|
 UNLV |
10-2
|
22
|
|
21
|
 Illinois |
9-3
|
23
|
|
22
|
 Syracuse |
9-3
|
NR
|
|
23
|
 Colorado |
9-3
|
25
|
|
24
|
 Army |
10-1
|
NR
|
|
25
|
 Memphis |
10-2
|
NR
|
Team to root for: Texas
At this point, we’re thinking about matchups when it comes to Ohio State’s future in the Playoff.
Ohio State is unlikely to fall in the rankings, as championship games will mostly decide who gets a bye and who gets in from the bubble. Based on Tuesday’s rankings, Ohio State would host Tennessee, and if it wins, it would play Oregon in the quarterfinals at the Rose Bowl.
It is interesting, though, that Georgia was ranked one spot above Ohio State. It opens up the possibility that if Texas beats Georgia, the committee could drop the three-loss Bulldogs below Ohio State, despite Georgia playing an extra game. Whether teams should be punished for playing an extra game has been a Playoff debate for years, and it is sure to come into play this year.
Ohio State jumping Georgia would potentially give the Buckeyes a home rematch against Indiana in the first round rather than playing Tennessee. The Buckeyes already beat Indiana 38-15 at home last month, and though nothing is a given, that seems like the slightly more favorable matchup.
That would also set up an interesting second-round game with Texas, the SEC champion, in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans.
That could be the only way Ohio State could move up in the rankings, unless the committee severely punishes a Penn State loss to Oregon. I think Penn State will still be the No. 5 seed if it loses to Oregon, and Notre Dame is set in its ranking.
Nothing is official yet, but all signs are pointing to Ohio State being locked into hosting in the first round. All that’s left to find out is its path.
(Photo: Jason Mowry / Getty Images)
