Let’s talk about the supposed “Kliff Cliff.”
We’ve all seen the graphics showing how teams led by Kliff Kingsbury, the Washington Commanders’ offensive coordinator, faded over the second half of their respective seasons. Minimal production in the past two weeks and the team’s three-game losing streak put these numbers in the spotlight.
The breadth of this data — Kingsbury was head coach at Texas Tech from 2013 to 2018 and then with the Arizona Cardinals from 2019 to 2022 — is fascinating. Our first stop is whether the information applies to his current gig.
On Monday, I asked coach Dan Quinn about this Kingsbury regression narrative and how much he considered those numbers when hiring him for Washington’s offensive coordinator position. “Not really,” Quinn said. “You’re talking about a different program with different people and different players.”
He’s right. Different stories for each season provide the context that win-loss records alone don’t supply. Then there’s Kingsbury’s role. Talk about an apples-to-oranges scenario. He isn’t Washington’s head coach. The highlights of his role are creating game plans, play calling and helping to develop rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. Kingsbury doesn’t oversee the whole team or make big-moment decisions. The Commanders’ win-loss record doesn’t hit his resume.
What follows isn’t a deep dive — neither are those win-loss graphics — but a taste of Kingsbury’s last seven years as a head coach.
2016: The Red Raiders ranked fifth nationally with 43.7 points per game. But with a poor defense, a staple throughout Kingsbury’s six seasons, they finished with a 5-7 record. In its last six games, Texas Tech went 2-4. The offense scored 59, 37 and 44 points in three of those four losses.
2017: Texas Tech goes 6-7 despite the offense averaging 34.3 points. Over a 2-4 finish, the offense scored 27, 35 and 34 points in three losses.
2018: The Red Raiders lost their last five games to end Kingsbury’s final college season at 5-7. The offense scored 31, 46, 34 and 24 points in four of those losses, while the defense allowed 41.8 points in those games. Quarterback Alan Bowman missed several games after suffering multiple injuries, including a collapsed lung. He previously broke Patrick Mahomes’ single-game freshman passing record with 605 yards.
2019: First NFL season for Kingsbury and No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray. Unsurprisingly, the rebuilding Cardinals finished with a losing record (5-10-1) but went 2-1 over the final three weeks while averaging 30 points.
2020: Arizona loses five of its final seven games to finish 8-8. In those seven games, the offense averaged 20.6 points with games of 28, 26 and 33 points.
2021: Murray sprains his ankle in Week 8 and misses the next three games. Arizona wins in his first game back and then loses four of its last five. Injuries keep lead receiver and four-time Pro Bowler DeAndre Hopkins sidelined for seven games, including the final four.
2022: Kingsbury’s final season in Arizona. The Cardinals lost their final seven games. Murray missed six games and tore his ACL in Week 14. They scored fewer than 20 points in each game during the losing streak except the one Murray played from start to finish. Hopkins is second on the team with 64 receptions despite missing eight games.
Those aren’t all the necessary details, but they help fill out the story. Injuries and defensive struggles dragged down Kingsbury’s winning percentages. Again, that’s not an issue here. Speaking of here, we know the context with the Commanders — or we should.
The first five to seven weeks were magical. Daniels’ star turn and Kingsbury’s play designs broke scoring and efficiency records and had film watchers breaking down play after play. The real fascination came with the understanding that this potent attack occurred despite the roster’s numerous thin or weak units.
Terry McLaurin is the lone difference-maker among the receivers. The other targets include a player (Noah Brown) cut by Houston before Week 1 who is Washington’s No. 2 receiver, a slot option (Olamide Zaccheaus) who caught 10 passes last season with Philadelphia, a fourth-year player (Dyami Brown) who entered this season with 29 career receptions, and a third-round rookie (Luke McCaffrey) who converted from quarterback in 2022.
Starting tight end Zach Ertz played only 17 total games the previous two seasons, was released by Arizona midway through the 2023 campaign and later couldn’t make it off Detroit’s practice squad. Meanwhile, the uncertainty at left tackle led to an unusual rotation with another third-round rookie (Brandon Coleman) and career backup (Cornelius Lucas).
Yet, the offense ranked second in scoring (30.1 points per game) through Week 7. Future numbers were bound to dip. Masterfully hiding the offensive line deficiencies and lack of playmakers and consistently winning the turnover battle would only last so long.
Injuries, such as Daniels’ rib, began mounting. Mistakes and drops increased. Kingsbury’s balanced offense faded as leading rusher Brian Robinson Jr. missed three games outright and was limited in another two. Washington’s scoring is down (averaging 23.2 points over the last five games). The third-down conversion rate, which declined from 44.8 to 33.8, derailed the offense’s rhythm and dropped the Commanders to 28th in time of possession over the recent span.
Washington hit the ceiling of its potential in losses to contenders Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Beyond weird things happening in division games, there’s no excuse for the Dallas loss. Sunday’s home game against the 3-8 Tennessee Titans suddenly has a must-win feel. Otherwise, Washington enters the Week 14 bye anything but relaxed. Of course, Robinson (ankle), running back Austin Ekeler (concussion) and right tackle Andrew Wylie (concussion) are all uncertain this week.
Daniels’ sharp performances lifted the offense. His toughness is unquestionable based on what we’ve witnessed, but the rib injury was painful and somewhat affected the dual threat.
Though top-10 in completion percentage (68.4) and expected points added (EPA) per dropback (0.16) on the season, Daniels is 27th (61.0 completion percentage) and 21st (0.02) in those categories since Week 8.
While the pressure and blitz rates faced are essentially the same pre- and post-injury — teams were sacking the rookie at a higher rate over the first six weeks — Daniels has looked more unsettled behind the line compared to when the offense was setting records. Per Next Gen Stats, when under pressure against the Cowboys, Daniels was sacked four times and completed 1 of 9 passes for 4 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. He completed 24 of 29 passes for 271 yards and a touchdown in a clean pocket.
Daniels ran confidently against the Cowboys, which should end injury talk, though Robinson’s absence hurts those productive read options Kingsbury calls for his quarterback. Ekeler thrives as the shifty counter to Robinson’s power but works better in tandem than as the lead back. Washington is 2-3 in games Robinson missed or was limited because of an in-game injury.
Go back to the start of this rebuild or, as Quinn prefers, “recalibration.” Hard work and an aggressive mindset among players form a needed baseline. Along with developing Daniels, establishing chemistry is what this season is about — or was before starting 7-2. The playoff goal emerged much sooner than anticipated and changed the fundamental understanding of Washington’s reality, at least from national media and pockets of the fan base.
While Kingsbury does his part to halt this skid and move the Commanders closer to the postseason, let’s not pretend the coordinator works with a talent-rich group. Finding ways to win regardless of circumstances is the job.
Every team must make adjustments as the season advances. Kingsbury has, but the coordinator can and must do more for Washington. But not because of what transpired when he held the title of head coach.
(Top photo: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
