As the end of the summer transfer window approached, Nottingham Forest had one particularly huge decision to make. It was not one they lingered over for long.
Newcastle United were willing to pay a fee worth around £45million ($57m) to sign Anthony Elanga. The potential package included an initial £30million payment, a swap deal for Paraguay winger Miguel Almiron (valued at around £5million) and two potential further payments of £5million.
A significant amount of money.
Forest even had another potential long-term replacement lined up in the form of Lyon wideman Ernest Nuamah, but that contingency plan was only ever in case Newcastle came back with a vastly improved offer, one too good to turn down, which didn’t happen.
The club were also aware of what the ramifications of selling Elanga would be. The deal, while representing a lucrative profit on a player they had signed for £15million from Manchester United in July 2023, would have had a wider impact. It would have been a step backwards.
The Sweden international was — and still is — a hugely popular figure in the dressing room, as well as among fans.
Elanga’s explosive, direct approach and his willingness to torment opposition defenders with his pace saw him provide nine assists and five goals last season. Only the talismanic figure of Morgan Gibbs-White delivered more assists, laying on 10, as well as five goals of his own.
What makes it more impressive is that Elanga did it in 2,434 minutes of game time, while Gibbs-White had 3,164 minutes on the pitch.
When Forest headed to face tomorrow’s hosts Arsenal on the opening day of last season, Elanga made a blistering impact, as he and Taiwo Awoniyi combined to launch an implausibly quick counter-attack down the entire length of the pitch, which ended as Elanga delivered a perfect cross to the near post for the Nigerian to convert.
It was a goal that perfectly personified everything that makes Elanga such an electric, exciting presence.
When Newcastle visited the City Ground before the international break, there may have been some watching from afar in the north who might have felt that they had a lucky escape when it came to not signing Elanga — before kick-off at least.
There also might be a perception closer to home that he has not quite hit the same heights this time around.
But Nuno Espirito Santo has spoken frequently about how delighted he was that Forest retained the core group of their most influential players in the summer amid interest from elsewhere. As well as Brazilian Murillo and Gibbs-White, Nuno very much regards Elanga as being in that bracket.
In eight starts and three substitute appearances, Elanga has so far contributed two assists. There was the free-kick delivery for Murillo to head home his first Forest goal in that game against Newcastle and a reminder of what makes Elanga tick at Anfield when his rampaging break and perfectly weighted crossfield ball gave Callum Hudson-Odoi the opportunity to do what he does best, by conjuring up a remarkable winning goal.
But otherwise, while Elanga created 32 chances from open-play last season and 14 of those were classed as “big chances” — defined by Opta as a situation where a player should be able to score typically in a one-on-one scenario or when the ball is close to the goal and there is little to moderate pressure on the shooter — this season, he’s yet to create a big chance from open play.
The Murillo goal was a set piece and, while Elanga’s superb pass was a massive factor in Hudson-Odoi’s memorable goal at Liverpool, his fellow winger still had a lot to do before putting the ball in the back of the net.
But that stat alone does not provide the complete picture.
Elanga averaged 0.85 key passes per 90 minutes last season and has averaged 0.83 this time around. The number of crosses he delivers has actually gone up from 2.1 per 90 minutes to 2.9. He averaged 1.5 shots per 90 last season, which has dropped slightly to 0.9, but his pass success has improved from 75.3 per cent to 78.8 per cent.
Elanga’s xG per 90 of 0.14 is in the same ballpark as that of Hudson-Odoi (0.15) and Gibbs-White (0.17) and is greater than Elliot Anderson’s (0.11).
There is a high level of confidence behind the scenes that Elanga is doing all of the right things — that he is getting into the right areas at the right time — but that it is just about finite margins when it comes to delivering the final ball.
Certainly, it is clear that his head coach has complete faith in the 22-year-old. “It will come,” said Nuno in his pre-match press conference ahead of the trip to Arsenal. “It will come. Of course, we still see good things in him. He is doing an amazing job, while still trying to improve certain aspects of his game — including off the ball. But you know what an amazing threat he has, in terms of how he can use space, his speed and one-on-ones.
“He is determined to get better and we have a lot of confidence in him. He is not doing much wrong. It is just the final pass, the right moment in the right space. The difficult part is to arrive in the right area in the right moment and he is able to do that. The next step for him, hopefully, will come on Saturday.”
Elanga has already played a key part in Forest’s improvement in one key area — set pieces. When Forest signed James Ward-Prowse on loan from West Ham, many anticipated that the former England midfielder — famed for his set-piece delivery — would help resolve that issue. But while Ward-Prowse has found himself on the bench in recent weeks, it has been Elanga who has provided the threat with his delivery from corners and free kicks.
Elanga has created seven chances from set pieces this season. His cumulative xA (expected assists) from set pieces is 0.85, which is the eighth-highest in the Premier League. Only six players have created more, including Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka, who are likely to be among the Arsenal ranks at the Emirates tomorrow.
Forest have scored five set-piece goals this season — the joint most in the division, along with Aston Villa. Arsenal, a side famed for their set-piece ability, have scored four, although finding a way to prevent them from adding to that tally will be vital.
“It is a new situation for him,” said Nuno when asked about Elanga’s set-piece delivery. “Last season he was not involved. He is doing well. Delivering set pieces is about consistency. You cannot have it that the team goes up and you do not know where the ball is going to be. The first principle is that the guy who delivers can put the ball in the right place as many times as possible. He is doing that well.”
There is plenty of evidence to support Nuno’s belief that there is more to come from Elanga, even in open play. During the game against Newcastle, as Forest suffered just their second Premier League defeat of the season, Elanga had numerous threatening moments, even if he did not always make the best use of them.
When Chris Wood led a quick break down the middle…
… Elanga made a great run down the outside of defender Lewis Hall.
But having got himself into a great area, the only player who was able to keep up with his pace was Gibbs-White on the edge of the box…
… there was nobody exploiting the huge space at the far post.
And, when he opted to shoot, Hall did well to block, leaving the ball to loop harmlessly into the arms of goalkeeper Nick Pope.
Elanga himself was the source of another lightning break, as he robbed Joe Willock of possession in the Forest penalty area…
… before feeding Nico Dominguez, then indicating where he wanted the return pass.
Elanga progressed most of the way down the pitch…
… but when Wood made a perfectly timed run, he elected not to pass.
Wood made a second dart, this time angling into the box.
This time the pass was harder, but Elanga still held onto the ball and was eventually forced to play a backwards ball to Hudson-Odoi, with the opportunity gone.
Elanga has created half-chances for Wood in other games.
Against Wolves, after being played in by Ryan Yates…
… Elanga spots the intelligent run of the New Zealand international.
So he puts the cross in…
… and it ends with a first-time shot that is well held.
At Southampton, Elanga pounced on a sloppy pass as the home side looked to play their way out from the back.
Again, Wood makes a run towards the ball and is picked out by Elanga…
… but his shot was again well held.
Another moment at Southampton showed Elanga at his best when he collected possession on the right…
… and breezed past Jack Stephens.
Elanga’s pace took him right into the penalty area.
It would have been a fine solo goal, but he shot right at the goalkeeper.
Still, there is enough evidence to suggest Elanga can still be a key figure for Forest this season if he has the belief to keep doing what he is doing.
“There are so many players who are still (looking for consistency),” said Nuno. “But this is normal, particularly with offensive players, with strikers and wingers, there are ups and downs that they have.
“It is very hard to play in that part of the pitch. It requires confidence. With Anthony, we know there is still much more to come.”
(Additional reporting: Thom Harris)
(Top photo: Alex Livesey via Getty Images)
