Following their high-profile victory over the AFC-leading Chiefs, the Bills went off the NFL radar for their much-needed Week 12 bye. The 9-2 Bills, who boast a six-game winning streak, will take on a 49ers team that has struggled to find consistency through an injury-riddled season.
Meanwhile, the Bills are finding health, highlighted by the potential return of one of their star players. How will it all impact the primetime matchup between the two teams?
Here is our Bills notebook for Week 13.
Is it Matt Milano time?
Over the past 14 months, the Bills have lived without one of their best players. Star linebacker Matt Milano, who has been a difference maker on defense since entering the starting lineup as a rookie in 2017, suffered a season-ending injury on Oct. 8, 2023, sending him on a path to rehab and get ready for the 2024 season. With just weeks to go before the 2024 season, Milano suffered a new injury — torn biceps — that put him out indefinitely. Dating back to his 2023 absence, the Bills have had to pivot the very identity of their defense, specifically on third downs. For the most part, when an opponent was in an obvious passing situation, the team would take Milano’s replacement off the field and put a defensive back on for a dime look to help their overall coverage.
The Bills have waited patiently, mentioning in early November that there was a “vision” for Milano’s return this season but wouldn’t share more than that at the time. They started step one of that process the week leading up to the Chiefs game, opening Milano’s 21-day practice window. If they felt he would have needed all the practice time he could get, opening the 21-day practice window a week before their bye — when the team isn’t practicing at all — would have been an odd move.
Upon their return from the bye, Milano was once again on the practice field and in a regular practice jersey — a stark difference from his non-contact jersey ahead of the Chiefs game. Milano looked close to his usual self even in his first week of on-field work and even more so this week as a full participant. The Bills have also kept an open roster spot the entire time Milano’s practice window has been open, which is as good an indicator as any.
It’s all pointing toward Milano returning to action this weekend against the 49ers, a significant boost to their overall Super Bowl outlook if he returns to his pre-injury form. That is, however, a big “if” given that Milano has been out of action for so long. One of his injuries was a leg injury, and even during training camp wasn’t as quick as he was pre-injury. But the hope from the Bills likely stems from Milano getting more time to rehab the first injury while rehabbing his biceps injury. Even during camp, though, Milano routinely got to the spot and made plays before anyone else because his top-notch instincts led him there. If the explosiveness returns, the impressive Bills defense will add what could be their highest impact player.
It’s also important to note that it could take some time for Milano to return to his every-snap role. There is a precedent for Milano in particular, too. Back in 2020, when Milano was returning from a longer in-season injury, they had him work in on third downs for his first three games while usual backup A.J. Klein played the early downs. Then, after three games in a bit role, Milano returned to his every-down starting spot. So that could be how they approach his first game back, just to get him back into the flow of a game. Either way, the Bills getting Milano back on the field since early in the 2023 season is a welcomed sight to their title push.
What about Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid?
In their Week 11 victory over the Chiefs, the Bills offense had to operate without two of their usual top skill players, as both wide receiver Keon Coleman (wrist) and tight end Dalton Kincaid (knee) did not play. It was the second game missed for Coleman and only the first for Kincaid, with the team likely hoping the bye would help get each player back in short order. But it would appear they’re going in opposite directions. Coleman was on the practice field Wednesday in a non-contact jersey. And encouragingly for Coleman, he was catching passes from quarterback Josh Allen in their routes vs. air drill. While that’s by no means a guarantee he’ll play in the game, it’s a great sign that he’s close, given that it’s a wrist injury.
It was not the same for Kincaid, who not only did not practice Wednesday but wasn’t even working along the sidelines with the strength and conditioning staff as practice occurred. In past weeks this season, when a player hasn’t even been able to get to that ramp-up period with the strength and conditioning staff during practice, it has signaled the player will have a difficult time getting up to speed in time for the game that weekend.
Spencer Brown’s return looms large
The Bills’ longstanding offensive line ironman streak snapped against the Chiefs when starting right tackle Spencer Brown had to miss the game with an ankle injury. But the good news for the Bills is that it’s likely a short-lived absence. Following the Chiefs game, speaking with The Athletic, Brown said that the injury was a low ankle sprain, but he expected to return for the 49ers game. Brown’s expectations were backed up with the right tackle getting on the practice field for a limited session on Wednesday, a continuation of getting on the field for practice just ahead of the Chiefs game.
While backup Ryan Van Demark played above expectation in his first NFL start, it was a far cry from what Brown has been this season — one of the team’s best starters by far. It will be an especially huge addition if the 49ers’ top pass rusher Nick Bosa can play after missing last week’s game with an injury, though Bosa did not practice on Wednesday. The 49ers also deploy one of the lowest blitz rates in the NFL, which makes the one-on-one blocking up front that much more important. So as long as Brown’s ankle is healthy, that should go a long way to help Allen and the passing attack.
Limiting CMC
As reports trickled in that 49ers starting quarterback Brock Purdy, who is dealing with a should injury, didn’t do much throwing during Wednesday’s practice, that signaled an even bigger emphasis on keying on the 49ers run game this weekend. Not throwing early in the week isn’t a guarantee that a quarterback won’t play. Allen did that in a previous season when dealing with an injury to his throwing arm. He went on to play that weekend.
But even if Purdy plays, it’s logical to expect he won’t be their lean in the passing offense — especially not in potentially snowy conditions. And if he doesn’t play, Brandon Allen playing quarterback for the 49ers will have the same impact — it all puts a heightened awareness on stopping Christian McCaffrey, one of the best dual-threat running backs in league history. That, along with the 49ers’ excellent run-blocking offensive line, puts that part of their offense into the limelight.
The Bills have sometimes had difficulties limiting the run, allowing some occasional explosive plays along the way. It starts with some problems on the interior of their defense, namely when the defensive tackle duo of Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones are not on the field, and sometimes even when they are in the game. If the defensive tackles don’t hold their spot and occupy blockers, the Bills’ linebackers, who sacrifice some size, have occasional trouble getting off blocks. That should be a heavy emphasis for the Bills, just as it was after the Dolphins game when Miami had a lot of success on the ground. Right defensive end A.J. Epenesa has also had some challenges with edge contain against wide rushes to his side, which could be another area to attack for the 49ers.
McCaffrey has played in three games this season, and while his natural burst hasn’t been as evident in those three games, you can tell he’s getting more comfortable with each week. And when he’s not in the game, backup Jordan Mason provides a lot of explosiveness in his one-cut style. The 49ers had to abandon the run against the Packers for the most part, which played into his lackluster stat line. However, the Packers also realized that with Brandon Allen at quarterback, they could sell out against the run to limit the 49ers’ best chance at offense. If Brandon Allen plays, expect a similar script from the Bills, but if it’s Purdy, it could pave the way for some more explosive run opportunities for McCaffrey and company. If the Bills can tie that up reasonably well, it could further solidify their hold on this matchup.
Projected roster move: LB Matt Milano activated from Injured Reserve
Projected practice squad elevation: TE Zach Davidson
Projected inactives: TE Dalton Kincaid, OL Will Clapp, DE Javon Solomon, LB Nicholas Morrow, LB Edefuan Ulofoshio, CB Kaiir Elam
(**Subject to change following Friday’s practice)
Prediction: Bills 26, 49ers 16
There are still a few injuries in the air for the 49ers, but this prediction is if Purdy plays against the Bills on Sunday. If he does not, fewer points from the 49ers is the likeliest result. The Bills have a lot going for them heading into this game. Outside of Kincaid, it seems they are nearing full health — including potentially getting Milano back into the lineup. The 49ers may be without Purdy, star left tackle Trent Williams, Bosa and possibly others. Even if they get one out of those three, being without the other two has potential matchup-altering ramifications. Truthfully, the Bills may be lucking out to get the 49ers when they are, and with the type of snowy weather preceding the matchup they expect.
A few things stand out about the matchup for the Bills. Oliver has a plus matchup in pass-rushing situations against center Jake Brendel, and the same would go for Greg Rousseau and Epenesa if Williams didn’t play. That would force Jaylon Moore into the lineup, who both players can beat in pass-rushing.
Offensively, it will be difficult as the 49ers play excellent team defense, but there should be some opportunity over the middle of the field in the passing game. Linebacker Fred Warner is slowed down a bit after revealing this week he’s been playing on a fractured ankle, which can help Khalil Shakir and Dawson Knox in that area of the field, along with the running game in general. If there is an area of concern, it’s how well the 49ers have played as run blockers this season, and that has been an issue for the Bills defense at times this season. With all of their injury issues, limiting McCaffrey will be the key to winning the matchup.
Ultimately, I think the Bills have enough in their favor to stay comfortably ahead for most of the matchup. The 49ers will likely have some good moments running the ball, which can help sustain some drives, but with an injured Purdy or his backup, punching the ball into the end zone may be a bit of an issue against the bend-but-don’t-break Bills. Allen and the offense should be able to get enough points to stay ahead and possibly even benefit from some shortened fields to help them win their seventh straight contest.
(Top photo of Matt Milano: Timothy T Ludwig / Getty Images)
