The Pac-12 rebuild is underway. With the additions of Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State in 2026, the league — once down to two members — is up to six.
So who’s next?
The conference must get back to at least eight football-playing members by 2026 to meet the NCAA and FBS requirements. The four additions announced Thursday were the top four targets, but the next step has not yet been determined, according to people with knowledge of the discussions. But now that the first step is complete, the rest of the timeline could move at a quicker pace. Adding four members to get to 10 is also on the table, as long as it doesn’t dilute the revenue pie.
One important note: The Pac-12 is not expected to regain autonomous status, and the College Football Playoff is unlikely to add a second automatic qualifying bid. Joining this Pac-12 is not joining the old Pac-12. But the league is coming back after being left for dead, and the search for additional members is underway.
So what are the options? Here’s an exhaustive list of potential targets.
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— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12) September 12, 2024
The Mountain West remains
Just because the Pac-12 added four schools from the MW doesn’t mean it’s necessarily done. It added those initial four to keep the circle small and because they were the top priorities. If there were strong interest in more, it would’ve happened initially, but there could be more options if the group of six decides to focus on regionality and gets turned down by other schools.
UNLV: The Rebels were the most surprising school left out. Las Vegas has become a sports destination, and UNLV’s football program is having its most success in decades. But a conference doesn’t need a Vegas team to make it a quasi-home, and the competition for the city has increased dramatically in recent years. Splitting UNLV and Nevada could also be difficult. They’re in the same university system, and Nevada is not considered as valuable.
Air Force: The Falcons are a national brand and have been one of the Mountain West’s top programs for the past decade-plus. Air Force was part of the group courted by the American Athletic Conference three years ago (along with Boise State, San Diego State and Colorado State). But the AAC might be a better fit, alongside Army and Navy football.
Wyoming: The Cowboys and Colorado State have always been very close. They left the WAC for the breakaway Mountain West in part to keep their rivalry together, and Wyoming officials were stern when CSU flirted with the AAC. The Cowboys could be an option if the Pac-12 goes bigger and more regional.
New Mexico: Lower on the totem pole and with a good men’s basketball program, the football struggles over a long period make the Lobos a tough sell.
The former Pac-12
Cal and Stanford: The Golden Bears and Cardinal are unlikely options for multiple reasons. For one, they’re in the ACC, and Florida State and Clemson have shown that it’s extremely hard to leave that league. The ACC also has no incentive to allow it and wouldn’t want to set a precedent. And the ACC needs to be at 15 members to maintain its status as a power conference. It added Stanford, Cal and SMU to get to 17, in part to prepare for the possibility of losing members.
It’s also no sure thing Cal and Stanford would even want to go. Part of the ACC appeal was being associated with universities such as Duke and North Carolina, rather than land-grant state schools. And even though they are receiving lower shares of TV revenue than the rest of the programs in the ACC (except SMU), it could still be more lucrative than what the Pac-12 can offer.
The rest of the Group of 5
The Pac-12 is expected to target some schools in the Central and Eastern time zones, but it will have to make a convincing case. AAC schools already make at least $8-10 million from the conference, and they receive good exposure on ESPN. Can the Pac-12 draw that much more with a to-be-determined TV deal and more travel? Schools will have to weigh the upside.
Tulane: The Green Wave have seen a resurgence in recent years with a Cotton Bowl win and have shown they continue to invest in football by hiring Jon Sumrall and continuing work on a practice bubble. It’s a very good academic school in the New Orleans market.
Memphis: The Tigers have made no secret of their desire to join the Big 12 or ACC. Would the rebuilt Pac-12 be a big enough step? Memphis has invested in facilities, has winning programs and has a major $25 million NIL investment partnership with FedEx. The local support is there.
North Texas: The Mean Green have long felt like a Texas version of Colorado State: great facilities and a sleeping giant that just hasn’t woken up. It’s a massive and growing school just outside of Dallas, and getting into Texas would be particularly helpful for schools like Boise State and Colorado State (and potentially Air Force).
UTSA: The Roadrunners have made big investments in athletics in recent years and became the top football program in Conference USA under Jeff Traylor. It’s another Texas program in a major market with a large enrollment. But it remains behind in some non-football sports, and Traylor may not be there in the future.
USF: The Bulls, in Tampa, Fla., are very far away from the Pacific Northwest. But the school has massive facility investments underway, including an on-campus stadium, and the university recently acquired membership in the prestigious Association of American Universities (AAU) — key factors in realignment.
Rice: It’s an elite academic school in Houston, but athletics have struggled for a while and it could be a tough sell.
Texas State: Another large and fast-growing school in Texas (San Marcos), the school’s leadership has leaned heavily into athletics and found success in the Sun Belt recently.
The non-football schools
Gonzaga: The Zags turned down the Mountain West multiple times in the past and didn’t fit with the old Pac-12. How about a mix of the two? The school is just down the highway from Washington State and would bring a basketball brand. Dances with the Big 12 haven’t worked out, and this could be the last chance to join a football conference amid an uncertain future. Perhaps, the Pac-12 could add three football schools and Gonzaga to get to 10.
Saint Mary’s: It’s a small private school with a focus on basketball, so it doesn’t really fit the profile of a league full of state football schools. But if the Pac-12 gets a little bigger with a basketball focus, perhaps the Gaels could get a look.
Grand Canyon: A for-profit private school with a massive enrollment (over 100,000, including online), GCU has risen in prominence thanks to men’s basketball and some other sports. It’s very unlikely but worth a mention.
(Photo of UNLV running back Greg Burrell: Louis Grasse / Getty Images)
