Does what happens in November and December of an 82-game NBA regular season really matter that much? If you are a fan of a team in title contention, the answer is yes.
Only five of the last 25 NBA champions did not establish a top-10 offense through 25 games. Jason Kidd’s 2011 Mavericks were the most recent, ranking 11th through 25 games.
But that 2011 Dallas team had a top-10 defense, ranking seventh. The other four teams that went on to win titles over the last quarter century without having a top-10 offense through 25 games were the 2010 Lakers, 2004 Pistons, 2003 Spurs and 2000 Lakers. All four teams ranked third or better on defense through 25 games.
Kidd has been a part of two NBA championship teams — the aforementioned 2011 Mavericks, and nine years later, he was an assistant coach on the Los Angeles Lakers team that defeated the Heat in the 2020 NBA Finals.
Kidd has also been a part of three teams that lost in the NBA Finals: two as an MVP candidate in his prime (the 2002 and 2003 New Jersey Nets) and last season’s Mavericks, who made it to the Finals as a No. 5 seed. He knows what it’s like to build a legitimate title threat on offense and defense.
“I think when you come out of camp, and you have that ability to start in the top five, that’s something that you can hang your hat on,” Kidd said when I asked him about building a stronger defense on Saturday. “Especially when your offense isn’t going, (defense) will give you a chance to win those ugly games. When you’re talking about being outside of the top 10, those are goals. As the season goes, you can use that in a different direction of trying to push your guys to get into the top 10 because that gives you the opportunity to play for that bigger trophy.”
Here’s where past championship teams have ranked in defensive efficiency, offensive efficiency and net rating since 2000:
| Season | Team | Off. Efficiency | Def. Efficiency | Net Efficiency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2000
|
 Lakers |
11th
|
3rd
|
1st
|
|
2001
|
Lakers |
1st
|
24th
|
8th
|
|
2002
|
Lakers |
4th
|
3rd
|
2nd
|
|
2003
|
 Spurs |
22nd
|
2nd
|
5th
|
|
2004
|
 Pistons |
19th
|
3rd
|
8th
|
|
2005
|
Spurs |
7th
|
1st
|
2nd
|
|
2006
|
 Heat |
7th
|
12th
|
10th
|
|
2007
|
Spurs |
3rd
|
2nd
|
1st
|
|
2008
|
 Celtics |
6th
|
1st
|
1st
|
|
2009
|
Lakers |
3rd
|
3rd
|
3rd
|
|
2010
|
Lakers |
12th
|
1st
|
3rd
|
|
2011
|
 Mavericks |
11th
|
7th
|
5th
|
|
2012
|
Heat |
2nd
|
9th
|
3rd
|
|
2013
|
Heat |
3rd
|
13th
|
5th
|
|
2014
|
Spurs |
5th
|
2nd
|
1st
|
|
2015
|
 Warriors |
9th
|
1st
|
1st
|
|
2016
|
 Cavaliers |
4th
|
5th
|
4th
|
|
2017
|
Warriors |
1st
|
10th
|
1st
|
|
2018
|
Warriors |
1st
|
7th
|
2nd
|
|
2019
|
 Raptors |
3rd
|
8th
|
2nd
|
|
2020
|
Lakers |
4th
|
4th
|
3rd
|
|
2021
|
 Bucks |
1st
|
9th
|
1st
|
|
2022
|
Warriors |
4th
|
1st
|
1st
|
|
2023
|
 Nuggets |
4th
|
26th
|
12th
|
|
2024
|
Celtics |
6th
|
3rd
|
2nd
|
Of the four teams that did not have a top-10 defense through 25 games and ultimately won a championship in the last 25 years, all of them found a way to improve defensively before the end of the season:
• The 2023 Nuggets had a bottom-five defense to begin the season but had the seventh-best defense for the rest of the regular season after the 25th game by allowing the fewest 3s in the league.
• The 2013 Heat also had the seventh-best defense for the rest of the regular season after the 25th game, becoming the league’s second-best team at forcing turnovers after Christmas.
• Pat Riley replaced Stan Van Gundy as head coach of the 2006 Heat 21 games into the season, and Miami finished the season with the 10th-best defensive efficiency in the league and was the second-best defensive rebounding team.
• The 2001 Lakers are somewhat of an outlier, finishing 22nd in defensive efficiency. But starting point guard Derek Fisher did not debut from injury that season until March 13. From that point until the end of the season, the Lakers were 13th in the NBA in defensive efficiency before sweeping the Western Conference in the playoffs with the league’s top postseason defense.
Kidd can relate to the 2001 Lakers defensive improvement. Last season, through 25 games, the Mavericks had the 23rd-ranked defense. It remained there with 20 games left to play. But after March 6, Dallas had the NBA’s best defense, turning the Mavericks from a Western Conference also-ran into the team that earned the right to get beaten by the Boston Celtics in June.
“If you believe that you have a top-10 defense and a top-10 offense, you believe that some nights when you’re not shooting the ball well, your defense will pick it up,” Kidd said. “And then there’s going to be nights where your offense is your defense. So just understanding that the goal for any championship team is to have the best defense and the best offense to give you the best opportunity to win.”
Every team has played at least 25 games to begin the 2024-25 NBA season. Here are the best odds to win the 2025 NBA title, according to BetMGM:
Now, let’s put these teams in some championship categories:
Reputation inclusion
Four teams in the top-10 odds to win it all are outside the top 10 in net rating. All of them have been in a post-bubble NBA Finals and still have a star from those teams: the Phoenix Suns (lost 2021 Finals with Devin Booker), the Milwaukee Bucks (won 2021 Finals with Giannis Antetokounmpo), the Golden State Warriors (won 2022 Finals with Stephen Curry), and the Denver Nuggets (won 2023 Finals with Nikola Jokić).
Of those four teams, only the Warriors are defending at a top-10 level, but they also have given up 140 points in back-to-back games while trying to integrate a new starter in point guard Dennis Schröder. The Suns, Bucks or Nuggets would have the lowest net rating through 25 games of any NBA champion over the last quarter century.
Three teams rank in the top 10 in net rating but aren’t listed with top-10 odds to win a championship. They are the Houston Rockets (sixth in net), the Orlando Magic (eighth in net) and the LA Clippers (10th in net). The oddsmakers clearly don’t believe in these teams’ offenses. Houston ranks 14th in offensive efficiency but 26th in field-goal percentage and 28th in 3-point percentage. Orlando ranks 23rd in offensive efficiency, while the Clippers rank 20th. However, Houston and Orlando rank second and third in defense in the NBA, while the Clippers rank sixth. While teams like the Suns, Bucks and Nuggets rely on stars carrying mediocre supporting casts, it will be interesting to see if healthy returns of All-Stars such as Magic forward Paolo Banchero and Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard shift the title odds.
Optimum balance not yet achieved
The Timberwolves have a top-five defense and made the Western Conference finals last season. However, their offense is in the bottom 10. Compared to last year’s contenders, they are not trending in the right direction, but they’re worth watching.
On the other end, New York has the NBA’s second-best offense after getting eliminated on their home floor in a Game 7 against the Indiana Pacers for the right to lose to the Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals. But while the Knicks defense has shown strides of late, it is still not a top-10 unit going into Christmas. Like Minnesota, New York is worth keeping an eye on. Unlike Minnesota, they’re trending up. But there are better-looking championship profiles.
The Upstart
The only team entering Christmas week with a top-five offense and defense is the Memphis Grizzlies. Perhaps they are hard to trust because they bottomed out last season while also getting upset by more poised lower-seeded teams in the 2022 and 2023 postseasons. Memphis is rarely better in the playoffs than in the regular season. But for now, the Grizzlies are becoming a regular-season problem.
2024 NBA Finals
Dallas is creeping into the top 10 defensively to meet its offense, and the Mavs already demonstrated what they are capable of in a playoff setting last year after making multiple in-season trades. Despite the roster churning again in the offseason, the Mavericks are stabilizing into a well-rounded team, if not necessarily an elite one yet.
The entire league is chasing last year’s champs. Boston is better offensively than at the start of last year but not as good defensively. The Celtics have the comfort of knowing that their coach and players have already shown they can win a championship. But this is also an era of parity that has denied a repeat champion since 2018.
No. 1s
Four of the last 25 NBA champions had the league’s best offense through 25 games: the 2021 Bucks, the 2017 and 2018 Warriors, and the 2001 Lakers. The 2018 Warriors had the best defense of those four teams, ranking seventh through 25 games like this year’s Cleveland Cavaliers. They are clearly the biggest threat to the Celtics in the East as the only other team in the conference with a top-10 offense and defense.
An even stronger predictor of a champ is when a team has the best defense and net rating. Eight teams with the best net rating through 25 games have won the championship over the last 25 years. Two of those eight teams had the best offense through 25 games (2021 Bucks, 2017 Warriors). Three of the eight had the best defense through 25 games (2022 Warriors, 2015 Warriors, 2008 Celtics), while the other three were better defensively than offensively (2014 Spurs, 2007 Spurs, 2000 Lakers).
If trends matter, the Oklahoma City Thunder are the most likely NBA champion. They have the league’s best net rating and defensive efficiency and rank seventh in offensive efficiency. OKC hasn’t made a Finals since 2012, doesn’t acknowledge the 1979 championship from the days of the Seattle Supersonics and has not participated in a Western Conference finals since blowing a 3-1 lead to the Warriors in 2016. Last year was the first time Oklahoma City made the playoffs in four years and the only time it won a playoff series since Kevin Durant left in 2016. The Mavericks upset the Thunder in the semifinals.
The Thunder do not have a special offense, merely a good one. But they have MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to carry the load while leading the NBA in steals and allowing the lowest field-goal and 3-point percentage. They are on track to repeat as the top seed in the West, and the Thunder will try to become the latest team to win a championship on the strength of its defensive prowess.
It’s only December, though. Only 34 percent of the regular season has been played. There is a long way to go.
(Photo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Mark Daigneault: Ethan Miller/ Getty Images)
