Who will win the first 12-team College Football Playoff national championship? I believe there are six teams that have the personnel, savvy and leadership to make a run and win it all, handling top competition as the margin for error gets smaller and the spotlight gets so much brighter.
I love so many of these matchups as we game out the bracket. I’ve long been looking forward to this first expanded Playoff, and I’m now downright giddy about what we’re about to see over the next month and a half.
Here are my picks for the Playoff:
First round
(8) Ohio State over (9) Tennessee
8 p.m. ET | Saturday, Dec. 21 | Columbus, Ohio
I love the opening-round matchup of Tennessee at Ohio State. The Vols will have the best defense OSU has played, and young Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava has been impressive down the stretch, throwing 11 TDs and just one INT in five November games. But I think the Buckeyes defense will be the difference against a shaky Vols O-line in a very hostile environment.
(5) Texas over (12) Clemson
4 p.m. ET | Saturday, Dec. 21 | Austin, Texas
Clemson, the ACC champ, has won two national titles under Dabo Swinney. But the Tigers are just 2-3 against teams with winning records and 0-2 vs. the SEC, and now they meet Texas in the 5-12 game. It’s a very intriguing QB battle here. Cade Klubnik, born in Austin, has been terrific and gotten better as the season has gone on, while Quinn Ewers and the UT offense have sputtered over the past month.
But I’m still going with the Longhorns here. I don’t think Clemson’s defense is stout enough — No. 14 in the ACC against the run — to win on the road against a team as talented as Texas.
(7) Notre Dame over (10) Indiana
8 p.m. ET | Friday, Dec. 20 | South Bend, Ind.
Indiana doesn’t get a home game, but it won’t have to travel far to visit Notre Dame for the first matchup between the in-state foes since 1991. The Hoosiers have been a great story this season, but Notre Dame’s defense will be too much for IU. And even though the Hoosiers have the top-ranked run defense in the Big Ten, the Irish run game is very dangerous and capable of causing problems.
(6) Penn State over (11) SMU
Noon ET | Saturday, Dec. 21 | State College, Pa.
SMU got into the Playoff with the last at-large bid despite losing to Clemson on Saturday and faces Penn State in Happy Valley, where there will be a raucous crowd. The Nittany Lions have an elite running back tandem in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen and ran all over a good Oregon defense. The Mustangs have been superb at shutting down the run, with only Boston College averaging more than 4 yards per carry against them, and they yield an ACC-best 2.74 yards a rush. SMU also protects its quarterbacks well (only 15 sacks allowed in 13 games).
But I’m not picking against Penn State in Beaver Stadium against SMU. I feel like the Nittany Lions will build off an impressive showing by their offense in the Big Ten title game.
Quarterfinals
(1) Oregon over (8) Ohio State
5 p.m. ET | Wednesday, Jan. 1 | Rose Bowl | Pasadena, Calif.
This would be a fun rematch of Oregon and Ohio State. The Buckeyes almost beat the Ducks in Autzen Stadium at midseason, and now they can play again in the Rose Bowl. I picked Ohio State to win it all in the preseason. I still think the Buckeyes are talented enough to win the title, even after their dud performance against Michigan two weeks ago, but it’s become apparent this squad is struggling under the pressure it seems to be putting on itself now.
On the other side, Dan Lanning’s guys always seem primed for whatever challenge they get, and I think the Ducks have a significant edge at QB between these two teams with Dillon Gabriel.
(5) Texas over (4) Arizona State
1 p.m. ET | Wednesday, Jan. 1 | Peach Bowl | Atlanta
Texas against ASU is fascinating for a variety of reasons, but start with this: The Longhorns came within a play of being in the national title game last year, while the Sun Devils were picked to finish last in the Big 12 in the preseason after going 3-9 in Kenny Dillingham’s first season. The Sun Devils have been arguably the hottest team in the country right now in winning six in a row. Running back Cam Skattebo has been a beast, and this ASU team looks like it’s really feeding off his energy and his attitude.
I think ASU gives Texas a game … for a half before the Longhorns’ talent takes over.
(2) Georgia over (7) Notre Dame
8:45 p.m. ET | Wednesday, Jan. 1 | Sugar Bowl | New Orleans
Notre Dame’s O-line, which was such a question mark early in the season, has held up very well, allowing just 15 sacks in 12 games. But Georgia’s front seven is scary — just ask Ewers and Texas. The Dawgs have overwhelmed Texas and its solid O-line twice. I do think the Irish’s defense is good enough to keep this one close, but the Georgia athleticism comes at you in waves. The Bulldogs will force a big turnover or two in the second half to pull away.
(6) Penn State over (3) Boise State
7:30 p.m. ET | Tuesday, Dec. 31 | Fiesta Bowl | Glendale, Ariz.
Penn State lost to Ohio State at home and Oregon in the Big Ten title game, and yet it got a more favorable draw than either of them. In SMU and now Boise State, the Nittany Lions face two teams that were both G5 programs last year.
While this isn’t a great Penn State run defense — USC averaged almost 8 yards a carry on PSU and Oregon just ran for 183 yards on it — and Ashton Jeanty is a much better back than either of those teams have, the Nittany Lions have enough athletes to not let the Boise State superstar run wild. Expect this one to be close. Jeanty probably goes for around 200 yards, but the Nittany Lions’ combination of tight end Tyler Warren and two elite running backs in a very good system comes up big down the stretch.
Semifinals
(1) Oregon over (5) Texas
Thursday, Jan. 9 (Orange Bowl) or Friday, Jan. 10 (Cotton Bowl)
Gabriel has seen plenty of Texas from his Oklahoma days. He beat a really good UT team last year with the Sooners and didn’t play in the 2022 game when the Horns blew out the Sooners. His legs will be a key here, as he ran for 113 yards on Texas last year.
(2) Georgia over (6) Penn State
Thursday, Jan. 9 (Orange Bowl) or Friday, Jan. 10 (Cotton Bowl)
Georgia’s offense has been really inconsistent, but as long as its front seven is healthy, the Bulldogs present big problems. Winning two Playoff games is a step in the right direction for James Franklin’s Nittany Lions. But I don’t see them handling the Dawgs, who are just bigger and more physical than the first two CFP opponents Penn State got.
National championship
(1) Oregon over (2) Georgia
7:30 p.m. ET | Monday, Jan. 20 | Atlanta
Dan Lanning against his old boss Kirby Smart in the title game is a sweet subplot. The Ducks are built a lot like Smart’s squad. They have a lot of those same elite big players — maybe not quite as many of them in the front seven — and they also have better skill talent and the edge at quarterback, especially given Carson Beck’s injury questions.
To me, Oregon has the top college QB in this entire field in Gabriel. He’s very experienced and accurate and has a quick release and A-plus leadership skills. Consider this: Gabriel has a 22-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio against ranked opponents over the past three seasons. The guy seems to be at his best when the spotlight gets hotter and the competition gets better, and this game is as big as it can get. Nike founder and Oregon booster Phil Knight, at 86, finally gets his college football national title.
(Top illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos: James Black, Aaron J. Thornton, James Gilbert / Getty Images)
