Why can't Edmonton Oilers' top prospects score more goals in the AHL?

The Edmonton Oilers are a franchise laser-focused on winning the Stanley Cup.

All future assets are vulnerable to trade, including the group at the top end of the prospect pool. If that’s the case, why are fans worried about scoring in the AHL?

The performance of Edmonton’s top pro prospects with the Bakersfield Condors is of concern to fans for two reasons.

First, this is the period in a season where top trade prospects can raise their profile with gaudy offensive totals to increase deadline trade value. That isn’t happening in Bakersfield this season.

Second, management dealt a young, fleet centre (Ryan McLeod) for a top prospect (Matt Savoie) and the young man’s scoring is shy of expectations.

Why isn’t Savoie scoring? Is this about the coach? What about the other hopefuls in Bakersfield? Is this a disaster?

Savoie

NHL teams don’t like to waste top-10 picks, and Savoie was chosen No. 9 by the Buffalo Sabres at the 2022 draft.

He did play pro briefly for the Sabres organization, including one NHL game and six more with the AHL Rochester Americans in 2023-24. Savoie scored 2-3-5 in those six minor-league games, creating an expectation for something close to a point per game with the Condors this season.

Through 21 games, he’s at four goals and 12 points. That projects to about a 40-point season, representing a wildly disappointing campaign for the young forward.

What’s the problem?

Young, talented wingers like Savoie struggle for four reasons: They are physically unable to play against older players because they are 20; they are injured; they are being faded for playing time by their coach; they do not have a capable centre on their line who can negotiate the difficult waters of the AHL.

In Savoie’s case, the eye test shows he’s capable of winning pucks and forechecking effectively. He’ll no doubt gain strength as his career rolls along, but he is not prone to getting knocked down or off the puck in the same way Kailer Yamamoto endured as an AHL rookie with the Condors. There were times when Yamamoto looked like a pile of laundry in the corner after being physically dominated by an AHL veteran. Savoie isn’t big, but he is larger than Yamamoto and can handle himself in treacherous waters.

Savoie has been healthy (as healthy as any player can be during a gruelling rookie pro season).

Coach Colin Chaulk is not fading Savoie. In fact, he’s impossible to miss at even strength and on the power play. Savoie is playing a feature role in Bakersfield.

Savoie’s centres so far this season have been quality AHL players. He began the year with Noah Philp (the second-best prospect in Bakersfield, trailing only Savoie), who flourishes at this level.

He has also played with Lane Pederson (another righty) and James Hamblin (lefty, but injured for much of the season) at times during the first 20 games of the season.

The usual reasons for struggle don’t apply to Savoie. Next question: How much, really, is he struggling?

How far off are the numbers?

It’s a question with two answers: Even strength and power play. The porous offence with the man advantage is skewing Savoie’s season in a downbeat fashion. To illustrate, here’s Savoie at even strength compared to other Condors forwards from the past regarded (as rookies) as potential skill forwards in the NHL:

This is a fascinating look at top offensive prospects who played for Bakersfield over the past decade.

At even strength, the top scorers were Jesse Puljujarvi and Yamamoto, two men who did in fact make the NHL and both have exceeded 300 games.

Savoie, at even strength, is just shy (one point) of those two men through 20 games. The power play is lagging this year, and that is having an impact on the totals. Oilers fans shouldn’t fret about Savoie’s offence.

Why can’t the other Condors prospects score?

The other skilled Condors

The group of players that succeeded (or are on track to succeed) from the group listed above have a few things in common. They are first-round selections, spent very little time in the minors and posted 0.4 even-strength points per game or more as AHL rookies.

The only outlier in that group, Dylan Holloway, is establishing himself as a first-rate NHL player with the St. Louis Blues at this time.

The rest of the prospect forwards (who are having a tough time scoring) don’t have draft pedigree. They are destined to have a different career path than Savoie, who will play in the NHL (although possibly not in Edmonton) in the years to come.

How bad is the scoring for the current players considered prospects? Here are the Condors forwards in question and their totals after 20 games this season:

Roby Jarventie had a strong start to the season, but his latest injury once again casts his hockey future in doubt. Despite real talent, he’s unable to stay on the active roster long enough to project as a part of Edmonton’s future.

Philp is NHL-ready and will deliver enough offence to stay in the lineup once he arrives in Edmonton for good. That could happen at any time, as he’s already played three games with the Oilers this year. Hamblin does everything an NHL team wants except score enough to gain a regular role. Whatever gap exists between Hamblin and Philp is the probable distance between an NHL career and falling shy.

Savoie is 20 and destined for higher ground, Matvey Petrov is shy offensively halfway through his entry-level deal despite plus offensive skills.

A reminder: Savoie is an outlier in Bakersfield. His skill will carry him far.

Most of the forwards who play more than 50 AHL games before ascending to the NHL are role players. They become checkers, even-strength outscorers and penalty killers. They are, to place a name on it, Noah Philp.

Why can’t the Condors score? 

The answer is Philip Broberg, Raphael Lavoie and injuries to several important Bakersfield forwards who thrived last season.

A year ago, Broberg delivered 16 assists in 48 games, while also aiding countless successful power plays as the quarterback from the point. He was an impact player at the AHL level last season and all Condors who were part of the power play benefited. Here are the points per game totals from last year and this season for the players involved.

The evidence is clear. Savoie is leading the Condors listed here in points per game on the power play, but the straws that stirred the drink last season are either gone or have been injured.

Pederson is a top-flight AHL centre in all areas, with great passing ability and the strength to win battles on puck retrieval. He has been hurt for much of the season, and that has had an impact.

Lavoie’s quick release and heavy shot were valuable to the Condors power play. Those tools are in Henderson with the Silver Knights.

Seth Griffith is enjoying a strong even-strength scoring start to the season, but he (and Savoie) are not surrounded by enough skill to make things go with the man advantage.

The impact skill power play from last season was lost in the flood of summer transactions, and injuries this fall.

Whose fault is it, anyway? 

A year ago, the Condors averaged 2.29 even-strength goals per game and 0.71 goals per game with the man advantage.

This season, Bakersfield is averaging 2.2 even-strength goals per game and 0.25 goals per game on the power play.

Some fans blame Chaulk, others are all over Savoie.

The answer? Bakersfield is two goals shy at even strength year over year, and nine goals off the pace with the extra man.

It’s injuries to Pederson, it’s Broberg and Lavoie down the road and it’s a bit about bad luck too.

Put this year’s Savoie on last year’s Bakersfield power play and we’re having a different conversation.

Savoie’s offence is in the range of reasonable and will benefit when Pederson is completely healthy and when the Oilers find a defenceman who is a reasonable facsimile to Broberg in the AHL one year ago.

There’s no conspiracy by the coaching staff, there’s no epic failure by the phenom.

There’s nothing to see here.

Saturday night

Many of the issues that worried fans through 20 games regressed in Game 21.

In a wild overtime road loss on Saturday afternoon to the Toronto Marlies, Savoie picked up an assist on a Pederson power-play goal. Petrov scored twice, and Cam Dineen, doing his best Broberg impersonation, had three assists.

The Condors kids can score at even strength, and Pederson’s presence should help the power play in the days to come.

(Photo of Matt Savoie: Leila Devlin / Getty Images)