RALEIGH, N.C. — The Hurricanes are 11-4-0, the revamped defense hasn’t missed a beat and their top scorer is among the NHL leaders.
Unlike much of the last decade, however, that top scorer is not Sebastian Aho.
While Martin Necas is off to the best start of his career with 25 points in 15 games, Aho has chugged along at his normal production with 14 points — exactly the 0.93 points per game the 27-year-old Finn has averaged throughout his career.
Then why does it feel like Aho has almost been an afterthought so far this season?
Let’s break it down.
Be goal-oriented
Aho has scored at a 35-goal pace throughout his career and is one of the NHL’s most consistent goal-scorers. In the last three seasons, Aho has scored 37, 36 and 36 goals, respectively. Those 133 goals are the same total as Steven Stamkos and Jason Robertson, and more than Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, Matthew Tkachuk, Artemi Panarin and … well, all but 14 NHL players.
In short, he is woefully underappreciated as one of the league’s best goal-scorers.
Which makes what’s happened through 15 games this season perhaps the biggest reason it feels like Aho isn’t playing to his usual level.
Aho has only three goals this season: two in overtime and an empty-net goal. Zero power-plays goals. Zero five-on-five goals.
This, however, isn’t uncharted waters for Aho.
Last season, Aho went without a five-on-five or power-play goal in the season’s first 10 games, scoring once short-handed and once in overtime.
In a 17-game stretch in February and March 2022, Aho went without a five-on-five goal but scored eight other ways: four on the power play, two empty-netters, a six-on-five goal and one in overtime.
You have to go back to 2017-18, Aho’s second NHL season, to find a scoring funk that matches his current one. Aho started that campaign without any goals in his first 15 games of the year. His response? He scored in each of the next five and finished the season with 29 goals.
Call all the shots
Maybe it’s that he isn’t the focal point of Carolina’s power play at the moment, or perhaps it’s because he’s channeling his inner Teuvo Teravainen following the departure of his longtime running mate. Whatever the reason, it seems like Aho has been focusing on distributing the puck more than he’s shooting it.
Is he? The numbers say … not really.
In the season’s first 15 games, Aho has 22 shots at five-on-five and 42 in all situations. According to NaturalStatTrick, Aho averages 6.86 per 60 minutes at five-on-five and 8.5 in all situations.
Those are down slightly from Aho’s output over his previous eight seasons, but nothing alarming — he’s averaged around 8 per 60, and close to 9 in all situations during his career.
The real problem for Aho is shooting percentage.
Just like it’s too early to think Necas and Jack Roslovic are going to flirt with 50 goals this year — they are converting on 25 percent and 20.9 percent of their shots, respectively — Aho is at just 7.1 percent, including the 0.0 percent he is anchored with for having no five-on-five goals.
Aho’s consistent goal-scoring throughout his career is coupled with his incredibly reliable shooting percentage. In the last four seasons, Aho has shooting percentages of 16.2, 16.7, 16.5 and 16.7. Those numbers wobble a bit at five-on-five but not much: 12.6, 11, 15, 11.6.
More good news on the shooting-percentage front: Aho traditionally gets better as the season progresses. In his career, Aho has a 9.8 all-situations shooting percentage in the month of October — easily the lowest of any month. Second-lowest? November, at 12.4 percent.
In December through April during his career, Aho shakes off his slow starts and jumps to 16.9, 17.8, 14.9, 17.6, 15.2.
Other “luck” factors haven’t been on Aho’s side, either. He is minus-3 on the season thanks to a low shooting percentage and a team-low .850 save percentage by Carolina’s goalies while he is on the ice at five-on-five. His PDO (on-ice shooting percentage plus save percentage at five-on-five) is .917 — 40 points lower than the second lowest on the team, Jaccob Slavin’s .957. Baseline luck is at 1.000.
According to NaturalStatTrick, only nine out of 304 forwards in the league with at least 150 five-on-five minutes have a lower PDO. By the way, Alex Ovechkin has the second-best “puck luck” in that group at 1.144. Last season, the worst PDO of any player with 1,000 minutes at five-on-five was Calgary’s Yegor Sharangovich at .952.
Aho’s luck should shift significantly.
The eyes have it
Aho’s most significant issue so far, however, might be the eye test — and that’s actually encouraging for the Hurricanes.
Aho may not be a game-breaker at the level of Connor McDavid or Kirill Kaprizov, but he undoubtedly has the ability to take over a game — often several games in a row.
Through 15 games, Aho hasn’t had many of those moments, and the only times might have been in overtime when paired with Necas.
Fortunately for Carolina, Aho hasn’t had to be the alpha dog for the team to succeed. Linemate Roslovic is tied for the team lead — and tied with his total from a year ago — with nine goals. On the other wing of the line, Andrei Svechnikov has matched Aho’s 14 points and leads the team in both scoring chances and high-danger chances.
The main reason no one is really talking about Aho’s lack of goal-scoring, however, is Necas. Necas’ red-hot start has taken the spotlight off Aho and given him time to get his season on track.
Time — and a change in luck — are on Aho’s side. And fortunately, Carolina’s solid start has given him some runway to take off in 2024-25.
(Photo of Sebastian Aho: James Guillory / Imagn Images)
