The St. Louis Cardinals have worked feverishly over the last several weeks to find a suitable partner for the trade of Nolan Arenado. When the Houston Astros reached out during last week’s Winter Meetings with serious interest in acquiring him, the Cardinals eagerly jumped aboard. The two sides conversed over the next few days, and optimism grew that a trade was nearing reality. By this week, multiple members within the Astros organization were convinced Arenado would be coming to Houston. St. Louis also believed it was closing in on accomplishing its most pressing offseason goal.
If only it were that easy.
Arenado nixed a trade to the Astros, multiple sources told The Athletic, refusing to waive his full no-trade clause — at least for now — to join a franchise that has reached the playoffs each of the last eight years. He remains open to exploring the idea, and both Houston and St. Louis will keep in contact regarding a possible deal, though it is unclear how heavily the Astros will continue their pursuit.
According to multiple team sources, Arenado did not want to rush into a decision and preferred to wait until more of the third-base market was established. This came as a surprise to president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, who has been candid about his desire to move his third baseman. One league source described the deal as “on the 1-yard line” over the weekend, with the Astros agreeing to pay a majority of Arenado’s remaining contract. The Cardinals would have been on the hook for roughly $5 million per season, an amount that would well satisfy Cardinals ownership in its intentions to lower team payroll next year.
But Arenado was never fully comfortable with the deal, according to multiple league sources, and decided to wait for further clarity regarding his market. That market won’t be fully established until free-agent Alex Bregman signs a deal. That the Astros have pursued Arenado so aggressively suggests a reunion with Bregman is unlikely. The Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, New York Mets and Detroit Tigers have been linked to Bregman during the offseason, but a signing is not believed to be imminent.
The uncertainty regarding Bregman, along with the Astros’ trade of outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs, also gave Arenado pause regarding Houston’s direction, per a league source.
The Cardinals ramped up their efforts to trade Arenado ahead of the Winter Meetings. Mozeliak discussed that decision — including the financial benefit behind it — in length with reporters Dec. 9.
“These decisions are not something we ever take lightly,” Mozeliak said. “(Arenado) is not demanding a trade. He’s not telling me I have to do it, but I think in the best interest of both sides, I’d like to try to find him someplace to land.
“From a financial standpoint, we’re trying to move our payroll,” he added. “There are certainly other ways we can do this, but (moving Arenado) would be a big help. It’s mostly financial, but it also creates runway for someone else.”
From the Cardinals’ side, the trade with Houston would have been ideal, especially from a financial standpoint. The Astros would have footed the majority of Arenado’s salary, which also includes $22 million combined of deferred money and remaining salary owed by the Colorado Rockies. That brings Arenado’s present-day value to just over $60 million.
Mozeliak faces a difficult task in moving Arenado — who is approaching his age-34 season and is coming off two down years offensively — without paying a majority of Arenado’s remaining owed money. The Astros being willing to take on nearly $45 million of Arenado’s salary would have made for a significant financial reprieve for St. Louis.
Mozeliak is facing pressure from ownership to reduce payroll, one source suggested, which would explain why he is relatively unwilling to take on a larger portion of Arenado’s remaining salary. The Cardinals will see a 25 percent reduction in their television rights fees after restructuring their regional sports network partnership with newly branded FanDuel Sports Midwest. The club is also preparing to see a drop in ticket sales next year. Both of these factors — along with the club’s newfound emphasis on upgrading its player development system — have played into the organization’s choice to lower payroll heading into 2025.
The Cardinals intend to continue exploring trade partners for Arenado. When reached by The Athletic for comment, Mozeliak said through text message, “We are still working on multiple fronts.” It remains to be seen what teams are still in play, or which teams remain on the list to which Arenado would accept a trade. But the Yankees and Red Sox continue to check in.
There also remains a scenario where Arenado stays in St. Louis. Mozeliak would still need to lower payroll, which would suggest the possibility of other players not previously believed to be available suddenly becoming so. Should that be the case, the most logical place for the organization to pivot would be the rotation. Sonny Gray and Miles Mikolas have full no-trade clauses, but Steven Matz (due $12 million) and Erick Fedde (due $7.5 million) are on expiring deals.
Both the Cardinals and Arenado are still in agreement that trading Arenado is what is best for both the player and the team. The trade, if it does occur, does not look likely to happen any time soon.
— The Athletic’s Chandler Rome contributed to this report.
(Top photo: Ron Chenoy / Imagn Images)
