(Editor’s note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando’s Pick Six of Nov. 18, 2024.)
2. The Chicago Bears played their first game after firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and replacing him with Thomas Brown. All was not lost, even though the Bears lost.
The Bears lost to the Packers (again), and if that’s all that matters to you, skip ahead. But how could it be all that matters to a Bears fan in the context of this season and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams’ career?
Chicago changed coordinators and played one of its best offensive games of the season, complete with a two-minute drive to the would-be winning field goal try (it was blocked, of course).
The table below shows the Bears’ offensive production Sunday ranking among the team’s top four performances in 10 games this season for points, yards, first downs, points per drive, EPA, EPA per play, success rate and third-down conversion rate.
| Bears Offense | Sunday | Season Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
Points
|
19
|
4th
|
|
Yards
|
391
|
3rd
|
|
First downs
|
23
|
4th
|
|
Points/drive
|
2.7
|
3rd
|
|
EPA
|
+13.4
|
2nd
|
|
EPA/play
|
+0.20
|
2nd
|
|
Success %
|
43.8%
|
4th
|
|
3rd down %
|
56.3%
|
1st
|
|
Red zone TD %
|
50%
|
T-5th
|
We can question why the Bears, with 35 seconds left and one timeout in their possession, did not run one more play to gain a few more yards before kicking for the win from 46 yards. The coordinator change could have worked against the Bears in this situation, given the coordination that goes on between coaches in these situations.
Over the past decade, kickers had made 7 of 8 tries from 45 to 50 yards at Soldier Field in November. Weather conditions were favorable Sunday.
Those were extraneous details on a day when Chicago’s offense made the most of its season-worst average starting field position (own 20.6-yard line) and nearly overcame the Bears’ worst statistical game of the season on defense (-12.6 EPA).
The Bears coaching staff was fired up after the team's go-ahead touchdown shortly before the half! pic.twitter.com/7QUuHfUqFj
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 17, 2024
Williams set season highs for designed rushes (four), scrambles (five) and combined rushes/scrambles (nine). He scrambled for 16 yards on third-and-8 and for 13 yards on third-and-5. Three of four designed rushes combined for 5.3 EPA.
Brown had Williams under center on early downs 36 percent of the time, a season high and twice the Bears’ rate for the season. He schemed easy completions to D.J. Moore, who caught all seven targets on throws traveling less than a yard past the line of scrimmage on average. Moore set a season high with 56 yards after the catch, including two receptions with 15-plus YAC, double Moore’s previous season total.
Taking the game clock down from 2:59 to 0:00 on the final drive was another plus, highlighted by Williams’ back-shoulder throw to rookie Rome Odunze for a 21-yard gain on fourth-and-3.
None of this was guaranteed. New play callers are usually stepping into bad situations.
While with Carolina in 2023, Brown replaced then-Panthers coach Frank Reich for nine games.
| Play Caller | Reich | Brown |
|---|---|---|
|
W-L
|
0-7
|
2-7
|
|
OFF PPG
|
13.0
|
10.8
|
|
EPA/play
|
-0.17
|
-0.20
|
|
Success rate
|
36.8%
|
35.7%
|
|
Cmp%
|
61.7%
|
58.2%
|
|
Pass yds/gm
|
155.0
|
146.9
|
|
Yards/att
|
5.3
|
5.6
|
|
TD-INT
|
7-5
|
4-5
|
|
Rating
|
76.7
|
71.3
|
|
Sack rate
|
10.0%
|
10.9%
|
|
EPA/pass play
|
-0.15
|
-0.21
|
As the table above shows, Carolina’s production when its then-rookie No. 1 draft choice quarterback, Bryce Young, was in the starting lineup wasn’t any better with Brown calling plays than it was with Reich.
That situation was possibly futile. This one in Chicago is more favorable. Minnesota’s defense should present a tougher test next week.
(Photo: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
